The Sweet Sixteen begins to draw to a close as the second-last game of the slate pits the Duke Blue Devils against the Houston Cougars. The winner of this game will take on the victorious team from the NC State-Marquette matchup. The possibility of an ACC Elite Eight meeting is intriguing for college basketball fans, but Duke and NC State are underdogs heading into their respective games. It is time to continue our March Madness odds series with a Duke-Houston prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Duke rolled over James Madison in the second round, winning 93-55 on the strength of a 30-point performance from Jared McCain. McCain is tied with Jeremy Roach for second on the team in scoring, averaging 14 points per game. The focus for the Blue Devils in this game will likely be leading scorer Kyle Filipowski's ability to handle the physical, top-ranked Cougars defense. Filipowski leads the teams with 16.6 points and 8.2 rebounds. Duke will play with a banged-up Roach, as he dislocated his pinkie finger against James Madison. There were no broken bones, but it still could affect him.
This trip to the Sweet 16 is the fifth straight for Houston. They survived a scare against Texas A&M on Sunday, finally winning 100-95 in overtime. They had a 13-point lead with under four minutes remaining, but the Aggies tied the game on a three-point Andersson Garcia buzzer-beater. Jamal Shead led the way for Houston, averaging 21 points and ten assists against Texas A&M.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Duke-Houston Odds
Duke: +4.5 (-118)
Moneyline: +158
Houston: -4.5 (-104)
Moneyline: -192
Over: 133.5 (-115)
Under: 133.5 (-115)
How to Watch March Madness
Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30 PM PT
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Duke Will Cover The Spread/Win
This will be a defensive game, as Houston will try to win by suffocating the Duke offense. Houston's issue is their shooting, as their scoring offense ranks 165th in the nation with 74.1 points per game. They are 240th in field goal percentage but take the 65th most field goals per game. Duke's defense is average, but they excel at stopping the three-point shot, which ranks them 53rd in scoring defense. Houston's best shooting numbers are from behind the arc, which could cause a bad matchup for them in this game.
Houston has been barely hanging on for wins all season due to cold shooting streaks. They are just 17-17-2 against the spread, while Duke is 20-14.
Why Houston Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Blue Devils have long been criticized for their failure to face off against physical teams. James Madison tried to play bully ball against the Blue Devils, but Duke had an early lead and didn't look back. Houston has more size and physicality and will likely be a problem for the Blue Devils. Houston leads the nation in scoring defense, allowing 57.7 points per game, and field-goal percentage allowed, with 37.8%. Duke's early lead was attributed to McCain's hot shooting from three, but Houston is also 14th in three defense.
Final Duke-Houston Prediction & Pick
The public perception of this game will be that Houston's physical play will destroy Duke, and the Cougars could run away with the game. The Duke haters will try to tell you that Filipowski won't withstand 40 minutes of hard defense from the Cougars. That could happen, but in a defensive battle, you have to look at the underdog being able to cover. There are many reasons why Duke can keep this game close. Houston could go through a cold shooting streak that gets Duke back in the game, or the Blue Devils could throw up some threes that hit if they remain hot from beyond the arc.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Duke-Houston Prediction & Pick: Duke +4.5 (-118)
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