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The Detroit Tigers look to build on the momentum they built last season. The future is bright in Motown as we continue our MLB odds series and make a Detroit Tigers over/under win total prediction and pick.
The Tigers finished second in the American League Central, going 86-76. Their season ended with a loss to the Cleveland Guardians in the American League Divisional Series. Ultimately, their only significant additions this offseason were Gleyber Torres and Alex Cobb, with no significant losses.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2025 Win Total Odds
Over 83.5 Wins: -102
Under 83.5 Wins: -120
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Why You Should Bet the Over
The Tigers went 10-3 against the Chicago White Sox, dominating their divisional rivals. Likewise, they went 7-6 against the Minnesota Twins. The Astros also thrived against the Baltimore Orioles, going 4-2 against them. Overall, they had a lot of things work for them, including one of the best hurlers in the game.
Tarik Skubal won the AL Cy Young in 2024 and is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Amazingly, his four-pitch combo, which featured a ridiculous changeup, helped propel him to the top of the heap. Skubal finished with a mark of 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA. Reese Olson went 4-8 with a 3.53 ERA. While he got bad run support, he showed what he was capable of. Significantly, he has a good four-pitch mix that is tough to hit. Jackson Jobe has the potential to be a top-end starter.
The Tigers signed John Brebbia to bolster their bullpen. Manager A.J. Hinch has been one of the most creative managers in baseball when it comes to deploying his bullpen options. Beau Briesko will get a chance to close, as he possesses a fastball/changeup combo that had a 5.5 percent barrel rate. Overall, his fastball can reach 96 MPH. Jason Foley converted 28 of 32 save chances last season as the defacto closer. Remarkably, hitters had an OBA of .113 against his slider. Tyler Holton has a cutter that headlines a five-pitch mix that held hitters to a .171 batting average last season.
The offense is not the best. Yet, the potential is there for greatness. Kerry Carpenter suffered some injuries but still finished with a mark of .284 with 18 home runs and 57 RBIs over 264 at-bats. Meanwhile, Riley Greene hit .262 with 24 home runs, 74 RBIs, and 82 runs and is on the cusp of a monster season. Center fielder Parker Meadows hit .244 with nine home runs, 28 RBIs, 39 runs, and nine stolen bases. Ultimately, he had a low chase rate (29.8 percent) and was fast on the basepaths.
The Tigers will win 84 games this season because Skubal and Jobe will dominate opponents on the mound to set things up for the bullpen. Then, Carpenter, Greene, and Meadows will be amazing.
Why You Should Bet the Under
The Tigers went 6-7 against the Cleveland Guardians and 6-7 against the Kansas City Royals in 2024. Likewise, they went 2-4 against the New York Yankees and 2-4 against the Houston Astros. It was no coincidence that they struggled against the two best teams in their division (aside from them), along with the Yankees and Astros. This team feels like a squad that beats bad teams and struggles against good teams. Unfortunately, that has a lot to do with health.
Cobb is already injured, which is a big blow to the rotation. Sadly, the spring training injury might hinder them. Casey Mize was an ace once upon a time. However, his velocity is not there right now, and his splitter is not fooling anyone. The bullpen may have some foundational pieces, but they are still untested.
The lineup needs some work. So far, there is doubt about what Torres can do. Jace Jung broke his wrist last season and will try to get his power back. Likewise, Javy Baez was too aggressive. This lineup goes into spells a lot, and that doomed them last season. How will they fare against the best pitching in the American League? That remains to be seen.
The Tigers will not win 84 games because their rotation is far from perfect, and their bullpen is not ready. Also, their lineup has some holes in it, and it will hurt them.
Final Tigers Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Tigers look like one of the best teams in the AL Central. Ultimately, much of their success will be determined by how healthy they can stay, and whether some of their players can take that next step. So far, I like what I am seeing in Detroit, and I wouldn't be shocked to see them win the division. I definitely think they will pass the 83.5-win mark, probably winning 91 games this season.
Final Tigers Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 83.5 Wins: -102
