UFC Rio: Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen continues on the prelims with a fight between Kyle Prepolec and Drew Dober in the lightweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Prepolec-Dober prediction and pick.
Kyle Prepolec (18-9) returned to the UFC this year but suffered a second-round submission loss to Benoît Saint Denis after stringing together back-to-back first-round knockouts in regional promotions. The Canadian lightweight seeks his first Octagon victory in front of a home crowd as he comes into his fight this weekend against Drew Dober.
Drew Dober (27-15) snapped a losing streak with a first-round knockout over Ricky Glenn but subsequently dropped tough finishes to Manuel Torres and Jean Silva in his last two UFC bouts. The fan-favorite brawler chases another highlight-reel rebound as he comes into his fight this weekend against Kyle Prepolec.
Here are the UFC Vancouver Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vancouver odds: Kyle Prepolec-Drew Dober odds
Kyle Prepolec: +390
Drew Dober: -520
Over 1.5 rounds: -188
Under 1.5 rounds: +145
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Why Kyle Prepolec will win
- Last Fight: (L) Benoit Saint-Denis – SUB R2
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 14 (10 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Kyle Prepolec holds several key advantages that could propel him to his first UFC victory against Drew Dober at UFC Vancouver. His height and reach advantage at 5-foot-10 versus Dober's 5-foot-8 frame gives him the physical tools to control distance and utilize his kicking game effectively, while fighting at home in Canada provides invaluable crowd support and emotional momentum.
Prepolec enters this fight with a full seven-week training camp, his first proper preparation since returning to the UFC after taking the Saint Denis fight on short notice. This extended preparation allowed him to train at elite gyms like Niagara Top Team alongside fellow UFC Vancouver fighters, sharpening his skills against high-level competition and addressing technical deficiencies.
Dober's recent struggles cannot be ignored as he's lost three straight fights and been stopped in his last two outings against Manuel Torres and Jean Silva. His chin appears to be showing wear after years of wars, and his aggressive forward pressure style that once served him well now leaves him vulnerable to counters from rangier opponents.
The stylistic matchup favors Prepolec's calculated approach over Dober's reckless aggression, especially with the larger UFC cage providing more room to move and establish range. Expect Prepolec to use his length, pick his spots carefully, and capitalize on Dober's declining durability to secure a decision victory or late finish as he finally breaks through for his elusive first UFC win.
Why Drew Dober will win
- Last Fight: (L) Manuel Torres – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 20 (11 KO/TKO/9 SUB)
Drew Dober possesses significant advantages in experience, output, and finishing ability that should propel him to victory against Kyle Prepolec at UFC Vancouver. With more than 40 professional fights compared to Prepolec's 27, Dober brings superior Octagon experience and a proven track record of thriving under pressure, having secured 16 finishes throughout his career including recent knockout power demonstrated against Ricky Glenn.
Dober's statistical advantages are compelling, landing 4.36 significant strikes per minute compared to Prepolec's 2.87 while maintaining better accuracy at 40% versus 35%. His takedown insurance and superior takedown defense (56% vs 40%) give him multiple avenues to control the fight, whether standing or grappling.
Despite recent setbacks against elite competition like Manuel Torres and Jean Silva, Dober's losses came against rising contenders who are significantly more dangerous than the regional-level Prepolec. The Canadian's UFC struggles are evident, having lost three of four octagon appearances with his lone victory coming via split decision, showcasing his inability to impose his will against UFC-caliber opposition.
Dober's proven durability and finishing instinct should overwhelm Prepolec's limited offensive output and questionable takedown defense. The Nebraska native's southpaw pressure and body work will break down Prepolec's defense over three rounds, leading to either a late stoppage or dominant decision victory as he snaps his losing streak in front of hostile Canadian crowd.
Final Kyle Prepolec-Drew Dober prediction & pick
This lightweight showdown between Drew Dober and Kyle Prepolec at UFC Vancouver presents contrasting narratives with the experienced veteran facing a determined Canadian fighting for his UFC career on home soil. Dober brings 42 professional fights and proven finishing ability while Prepolec seeks his first Octagon victory with the added motivation of fighting in front of his home crowd.
The statistical breakdown favors Dober significantly as he lands nearly double the significant strikes per minute (4.36 vs 2.87) and maintains superior accuracy and takedown defense. His recent knockout of Ricky Glenn demonstrated that his power remains intact despite consecutive losses to rising contenders Manuel Torres and Jean Silva, both of whom represent a clear step up in competition from Prepolec's level.
Prepolec's advantages lie in his height, reach, and home crowd support, but his UFC record of 1-3 with his lone victory coming via controversial split decision raises questions about his ability to compete at this level. His recent submission loss to Benoît Saint Denis on short notice highlighted defensive vulnerabilities that Dober's pressure style should exploit.
The experience gap and output differential prove decisive factors in this matchup. Expect Dober's relentless pressure, superior volume, and finishing instinct to wear down Prepolec over three rounds, securing either a late stoppage or clear decision victory as he rebounds from his recent skid.
Final Kyle Prepolec-Drew Dober Prediction & Pick: Drew Dober (-520), Over 1.5 Rounds (-188)
