Emma Navarro faces Aryna Sabalenka. Our U.S. Open odds series has our Navarro Sabalenka prediction, odds, and pick. Find out how to watch Navarro Sabalenka.
It has been a remarkably successful U.S. Open for American tennis players. On the men's side, Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe will play a semifinal on Friday, with one of the two going to the final and guaranteeing that an American man will play in the U.S. Open championship match for the first time since Andy Roddick did so in 2006 against Roger Federer. On the women's side, there's no Coco Gauff, but that doesn't matter. Emma Navarro and Jessica Pegula have both reached the semifinals. They have a chance on Thursday night to create an all-American women's singles final, which we had in 2017 with Sloane Stephens defeating Madison Keys for the women's championship. All told, four Americans are in the singles semifinals, two for the women and two for the men. First up is Emma Navarro, who gets her shot at No. 2 seed and tournament favorite Aryna Sabalenka in the opening semifinal on Thursday.
Sabalenka, for those who have not been paying close attention, has been the best major-tournament player in women's tennis in 2024. She won the Australian Open. She reached the French Open quarterfinals and likely would have gone deeper if she had not felt unwell on court (she had to take medication and never really felt fully healthy) in her quarterfinal loss to Mirra Andreeva. She was a leading favorite for Wimbledon but had a shoulder injury which prevented her from competing in the tournament. She did not play in the Olympics in France in late July and early August, properly focusing on getting healthy for the Open in New York. She has been healthy, and here she is, back in the semifinals one year after making the 2023 final and losing to Gauff.
Iga Swiatek dominates clay-court tennis and has been very solid across the entirety of the 2024 women's tennis season, but at the majors, Sabalenka has been better. She won Australia to match Swiatek's French Open title. Swiatek did not go deep at Wimbledon. Sabalenka has gone deep in New York and is the favorite to win a second major championship this year, which would put her ahead of Swiatek in the 2024 major title count. Can Emma Navarro pull the upset? She will have an American crowd behind her in prime time at the U.S. Open.
Here are the Navarro-Sabalenka U.S. Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
U.S. Open Odds: Emma Navarro-Aryna Sabalenka
Game Spread:
Navarro +4.5: -120
Sabalenka -4.5: -110
Moneyline:
Navarro +350
Sabalenka -465
To Win First Set:
Navarro +235
Sabalenka -300
Total Games In Match:
Over 21.5: -112
Under 21.5: -118
Total Games Won:
Navarro over 9.5: -110
Navarro under 9.5: -122
Sabalenka over 12.5: -124
Sabalenka under 12.5: -108
How to Watch U.S. Open
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET/4:15 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN, ESPN Plus
Stream: (Free Trial)
Why Emma Navarro Will Win
Navarro is the underdog making her first appearance in a major-tournament semifinal. She will have the home crowd behind her. She has nothing to lose against the clear-cut tournament favorite. She could play a loose and relaxed match which brings out her best tennis. If she does, she should keep the match close and cover. She could lose 6-4, 6-4 and cover the spread. As long as she doesn't get blown out in one set, she will cover.
Why Aryna Sabalenka Will Win
Sabalenka, as we noted above, is playing the major tournaments better than Iga Swiatek and everyone else in women's tennis. She is the only top-five-ranked player to make the semis in New York. She has earned the benefit of the doubt.
Final Emma Navarro-Aryna Sabalenka Prediction & Pick
Our lean is to Navarro, but all the props listed above look like props in which the totals will be within half a game, one way or another. Everything looks very close here, with no obvious “you gotta bet this” angle or line to make a play on. Our official recommendation is to pass on this match.
Final Emma Navarro-Aryna Sabalenka Prediction & Pick: Navarro +4.5 games
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