Opening Day is upon us and with that comes the start of a new MLB season. That means fantasy baseball is about to be in full swing as fans prepare to lead their team through a treacherous six-month campaign. Playing fantasy baseball is not for the faint of heart and if you’re reading this, you're likely a dedicated fan who does not take his ownership lightly.
Identifying potential breakout candidates can make all the difference for a fantasy baseball owner. Swooping in to select one of these players later in the draft or well after you projected them to be taken is a great feeling. When that player pans out and turns into a star, it is an even more satisfying feeling for the owner.
As last-minute drafts get underway before first pitch on Thursday, it doesn’t hurt to have a little more insight into which players are poised to exceed expectations this season and have their best campaigns yet. This list hopefully includes future first-time All-Stars and players who will compete for awards this season and beyond.
The definition of a ‘breakout' candidate for this article is a player who has never received a vote for an award nor has he been an All-Star. He also had to have appeared in at least two separate seasons to have some sort of jumping-off point when it comes to expected MLB stats.
All five of these players are young and may have yet to hit their prime. Could 2024 be the year they become household names?
Bailey Ober – Minnesota Twins SP
Twins starting pitching was spectacular in 2023, finishing second in the MLB in fWAR, strikeouts per nine innings, ERA and FIP. Bailey Ober was a part of that rotation and contributed 26 starts and over 144 innings to Minnesota's division-winning season.
Ober set career highs across the board in 2023. He pitched in over 20 games in a season for the first time as a professional and was consistent doing so. Ober missed the 150-innings cut and thus didn’t qualify for any awards or leaderboards. His 3.62 ERA would have ranked 21st among starting pitchers, right behind perennial Cy Young candidate Zack Wheeler.
Nearly half of Ober's 2023 outings were quality starts as nine of his 12 total came before the All-Star break. He pitched five innings in all but two of his starts and averaged 89.5 pitches per outing.
Ober's stuff isn’t lights out compared to other pitchers of his era, but he ranks among the elite in whiff and swing percentage. In 2023, he ranked 17th among all qualified pitchers in whiff percentage (28.7) and fourth in swing percentage (53.1). If those numbers can stay consistent with four or five more starts on the ledger, Ober could find himself in the Cy Young conversation in late September.
Pushing his threshold and building into an ace-type MLB pitcher is possible for Bailey Ober in 2024. The outlying numbers should follow if he can start 30 games and pitch 170 innings.
Alek Thomas – Arizona Diamondbacks OF
Those in tune with the MLB are likely familiar with Alek Thomas. He was one of the D-backs heroes last postseason as he had several jump-from-your-seat moments for the pennant-winning ballclub.
Thomas is set to embark on year three in the big leagues and is poised to be the next Diamondbacks outfielder to breakout. Of course, that was Corbin Carroll last season who went on to win unanimous NL Rookie of the Year and is now a surefire MVP candidate.
Thomas is a defense-first player but his bat did the talking in the playoffs. He had a clutch home run against the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS and a pair of two-hit games in the World Series. Overall he had a .734 OPS in 17 playoff games.
That number can still be higher and Arizona probably wants it to be in the regular season. Thomas has a .633 OPS in over 800 MLB plate appearances. That won’t cut it for another year or two and has to improve if he wants to stick in the Diamondbacks' long-term plans.
His .918 OPS in 15 spring training games is an encouraging sign that he's seeing the ball better. Thomas will get his chances early and often and I'm banking on him outplaying his expectations. As a kicker, I also think he'll be more active on the base paths with a potential 20-steal season coming after he had nine in 2023, which only adds to his fantasy value.
Luis Campusano – San Diego Padres C
The number of catchers who assume the bulk of playing time behind the plate for their respective team is dwindling with more teams going for the tandem approach. Only 12 catchers started at least 100 games and only six played 1,000 innings behind the plate in 2023.
Padres backstop Luis Campusano has a chance to be part of that elusive club in 2024. The Padres have already slated him as their full-time catcher although they have a viable backup option in Kyle Higashioka. Through two games, they have to like what they've seen from Campusano.
The 25-year-old started both of San Diego's games in Korea against the Los Angeles Dodgers. After going hitless in game one, Campusano collected three base knocks, including two doubles, in a game two win for the Padres. He also drove in a pair of runs.
Good offensive catchers are hard to come by these days. The Padres should count their blessings with Campusano and hope he can stay healthy and consistent. If his .847 OPS in 42 games last year can translate to a full season, we could be talking about a top-five catcher in the league.
Hunter Brown – Houston Astros SP
A top-100 prospect just a year ago, Hunter Brown's 2023 did not quite go as expected. He made it through a full season with the Astros, starting 29 games and appearing in an additional two.
His numbers were not what he wanted them to be though as his ERA ballooned over five to end the season. Brown finished with a 5.09 ERA across 155.2 innings but showed some solid metrics, including 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
He posted 11 quality starts but was touched up in more than half of his outings, allowing five or more hits in 19 appearances. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) against was .330, another gut punch to a forgetful rookie campaign.
Brown has spent the offseason working on his arsenal and refining his release point. It worked through spring training as Brown posted a 2.12 ERA in 17 innings, striking out a quarter of the batters he faced (17 of 68).
He appears healthy and has a firm grip on a spot in the Astros rotation. If Hunter Brown can limit the walks and start to command the zone, he could finally reach his potential of being an ace prospect.
Jack Suwinski – Pittsburgh Pirates OF
There hasn’t been much going for the Pirates in recent years. They'll enter 2024 trying to snap an eight-year MLB playoff drought and it doesn’t exactly look promising for the Buccos this season.
There are a few bright spots on the roster, including outfielder Jack Suwinski. The left-handed slugger belted 26 homers for the Pirates in 2023 as he occupied center field for most of the season. Suwkinski also added 21 doubles and 63 runs while leading the Pirates with a .793 OPS.
Suwkinski's barrel rate was among the best in the game last season and he found ways to adjust when he hit rough patches throughout the season. He had only one month with an OPS below .700. After dreadful months hitting .185 in June and .130 in August, Suwinski raised his batting average by 220 total points between the two following months (.246 in July, .289 in September).
He'll hit in the heart of the Pirates lineup, one that will hopefully get production from the top. Jack Suwinski is a prime All-Star candidate in 2024 and could be among the league's home run leaders late in the season.
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