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It’s tough to know at the time, but staying away from overdrafting players when drafting your fantasy football teams is a great way to make sure you’re in contention. With wide receivers getting even closer and closer to the top of the draft board this year, you need to exercise caution with that position group.
The Justin Jefferson’s and Ja’Marr Chase’s of the world still lead the position, but there are plenty of big-name receivers that you need to be careful of when drafting. While there are no rookie wideouts on this list, drafting Jaxon Smith-Njiba or Zay Flowers just because of their preseason hype can be a slippery slope, so do your homework before you push that draft button.
Utilizing Underdog ADP, the following five names are overvalued wide receivers that you should avoid at their current cost when you are drafting your fantasy football teams this season.
Overvalued WRs Based on ADP
5. George Pickens Current 2023 ADP – 62.3
The consensus surrounding the offense for the Pittsburgh Steelers is that there is no consensus, with the industry differing big time on how well this unit will do. With the jury still out on Kenny Pickett, that uncertainty funnels down to his two top wideouts, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.
With both Johnson and Pickens currently within 10 picks of each other, Johnson is the better selection here, based solely on his implied target share being higher than what Pickens will earn. Drafting a WR2 to start the sixth round is not bad in a vacuum, but when the WR2 is so close to the WR1 in the same offense, it doesn’t offer a good opportunity to exceed the ADP.
4. Tee Higgins 26.5
A trend to start this list is not overdrafting WR2s in their current offense, which is the exact role that Tee Higgins has in Cincinnati. While one of the best WR2 in the entire league, being the second Bengals wideout to go within the first three rounds means you’re drafting Higgins pretty darn close to his ceiling.
Even if Joe Burrow comes out guns blazing and both Chase and Higgins get their own, the passing part of this offense has to be at its absolute peak, which isn’t a given. Three top-30 finishes, including a career-best WR18 last season, doesn’t match up with his early third-round ADP, so stay away from Higgins unless he is still on the board in the fourth round or later.
3. Gabe Davis 67.9
The final WR2 on this list is a popular name in the fantasy football community – Gabe Davis. As the second option in a Josh Allen-led passing attack, the volume is there for Davis to succeed, but he has struggled to do so.
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Stefon Diggs is the tried and true top option for Allen, and after drafting rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid, there is a little more competition for targets. Davis tied Mike Williams for 13th-most WR2 targets last season (93), already not painting the best picture moving into 2023.
Near the six/seven turn feels about two rounds too rich for Davis, even if he is attached to a high-flying offense. With Kincaid likely taking over some slot work and taking targets away from Davis, Davis’ ceiling does not match his ADP, making him an overvalued WR.
2. DK Metcalf 29.4
The three-headed receiver group for the Seattle Seahawks is one of the best in the league, headlined by DK Metcalf. With Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Smith-Njiba all catching passes from Geno Smith, can a second-round ADP really be what Metcalf should be drafted at?
The talent is still obviously there for Metcalf, as he produced a 1,000-yard season last year for the first time since 2020. But his TD numbers took a tumble (6) to the lowest of his career to this point, a number that will be under the microscope this year.
Will Metcalf still command the largest target share on the team? It is likely, but there are a lot of mouths to feed for an offense that really likes to run the ball – avoid Metcalf at all costs at his current ADP.
1. Deebo Samuel 34.7
The final name on this list is a part of one of the most high-powered offenses in the NFL, the San Francisco 49ers. As Deebo Samuel enters into a full season catching the ball from Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey all will have a lot to say about Samuel’s declining target share.
Granted, injuries have slowed down Samuel (he has never played a full season), but Kyle Shanahan can only manufacture so many touches for Samuel. This offense has a ton of weaponry on it, which means a lot of players need to touch the ball, decreasing Samuel’s targets that topped out at 120 back in 2021.
