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The 2023 Tampa Bay Rays are among the top contenders to win the World Series. A glance at the Rays' record and team stats suggests that it would be no surprise if Tampa Bay finally gets over the hump and seizes its first title in franchise history.
But a closer look tells a different story about the Rays' 2023 World Series chances.
The Rays had a historic start to the 2023 MLB season. Tampa Bay won its first 13 games, tying the record for the second-longest winning streak to begin the year. The Rays were 20-3 and 47-19, on pace to win 115 games with more than 40% of the regular season complete.
A dismal July ended Tampa Bay's reign as the American League favorites. The Baltimore Orioles took sole possession of first place in the AL East from the Rays on July 20. The Rays posted an 8-16 record in the month.
Tampa Bay has rebounded in August and is part of a two-team race to win the AL East. The division winner will likely secure the AL's best record and home-field advantage until the World Series. At worst, the Rays should earn the top AL wild-card spot.
There's a major difference between winning the AL East and a bye to the ALDS compared to having to play a best-of-three wild-card series. The Rays' one fatal flaw could cost them the division, and it will probably prevent Tampa Bay from winning the World Series.
Rays' fatal flaw: Starting Pitching
The Rays' front office isn't to blame for its need in the rotation. Tampa Bay has been hit with a ton of poor injury luck. Three of the Rays' starting pitchers, including their ace, have suffered what appear to be season-ending injuries. It would be extremely difficult for any team to overcome that kind of a blow to the rotation during the season.
It started right after Tampa Bay's winning streak ended in mid-April when the Rays announced that Jeffrey Springs needed Tommy John Surgery. Drew Rasmussen and his 2.62 ERA became the next Rays' starting pitcher to go under the knife to repair a torn UCL. Maybe Tampa Bay could've overcome those injuries for a World Series run, but Shane McClanahan's injury should prove to be the fatal blow. McClanahan is done for the regular season and appears unlikely to come back in the playoffs. He was the AL Cy Young favorite shortly before getting hurt.
Amid those injuries, the Rays' potential playoff rotation looks like this: Tyler Glasnow, Aaron Civale, Zach Eflin and Zack Littell. It's not a particularly intimidating rotation, especially compared to rotations of other World Series contenders.
The Houston Astros will send a current, former or future Cy Young contender to the mound every night in October. A trio of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier is hard to beat. The Texas Rangers significantly improved their rotation at the trade deadline. Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery would both be frontline starters in the Rays' rotation. Nathan Eovaldi was having the best season of his career before going on the IL, and he's a proven postseason pitcher. That's not to mention the Los Angeles Dodgers or Atlanta Braves, both of whom have strong rotations and would be favored over the Rays in a 2023 World Series matchup.
Glasnow can fill the role of the ace that was vacated by McClanahan, though he does have one too many subpar postseason outings on his resume. Civale is the Rays' No. 2 starter. He might not crack the rotation in a short series if he were on the Astros, Rangers, Dodgers or Braves. The right-hander couldn't make it out of the first inning during his lone playoff starter last year. There's a reason why the Cleveland Guardians moved him at the trade deadline despite fighting for first place in the AL Central.
Eflin is having the best season of his career. Maybe the 29-year-old has reached a new level now that he's in the Rays' system. Eflin also has a career 4.32 ERA since entering the majors in 2016 and has yet to make a single postseason start. He's not exactly a pitcher who strikes fear into the hearts of opposing hitters.
The Rays are in trouble if Zack Littell has to make a playoff start.
Tampa Bay has become known for churning out quality relievers year after year. The Rays can't win four straight playoff series by leaning on their bullpen. There are simply too many innings to eat up against quality lineups. It was a strategy that came back to haunt Tampa Bay in the 2021 playoffs. After a 100-win regular season, the Rays' bullpen couldn't get the job done during the ALDS with the Boston Red Sox.
It could be a similar story for the Rays two years later.
