Bowl season continues on Friday with the Gator Bowl. The #21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) take on the #19 South Carolina Gamecocks (8-4). The action kicks off at 3:30 pm ET. Below we continue our College Football odds series with a Notre Dame-South Carolina prediction and pick.
Notre Dame finished 8-4 following a loss to USC in the final week of the regular season. The Fighting Irish are 6-6 against the spread while 58% of their games have gone over the projected point total. South Carolina is 8-4 and finished third in the SEC East. The Gamecocks are 7-5 against the spread while 58% of their games have gone over. South Carolina has a significant travel advantage as they will travel just 275 miles to Jacksonville compared to Notre Dame's 1,025 miles.
Here are the Notre Dame-South Carolina college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Gator Bowl Odds: Notre Dame-South Carolina Odds
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: -3.5 (-110)
South Carolina Gamecocks: +3.5 (-110)
Over: 50.5 (-106)
Under: 50.5 (-114)
Why Notre Dame Could Cover The Spread
Notre Dame rebounded from an 0-2 start to the season thanks to a solid all-around team. They have an inconsistent offense that ranks 48th in scoring (30.7 PPG) and 72nd in total offense (383 YPG). The Fighting Irish feature a stout defense that ranks 31st in points allowed (21.8 PPG) and 23rd in total defense (327 YPG). Although they suffered two brutal losses to unranked Marshall and Stanford, they also picked up wins over then-16th-ranked Syracuse and then-fourth-ranked Clemson. Notre Dame will be without their best offensive and defensive players, as DE Isaiah Foskey and TE Michael Mater both opted out in preparation for the NFL Draft.
After an up-and-down season, the Fighting Irish arrived in Jacksonville with a number of questions on the offensive side of the ball. Namely, those questions revolved around their quarterback situation. Starter Drew Pyne entered the transfer portal shortly after their regular season concluded as head coach Marcus Freeman named sophomore Tyler Buchner the starter for Friday's bowl game. The dual-threat quarterback began the season as the starter before going down with an injury in week two. A former four-star recruit, Buchner is incredibly inexperienced and will face South Carolina's 27th-ranked passing defense without any reliable receiving options. Sophomore Lorenzo Styles is the team's leading active receiver, but he caught just 30 passes for 340 yards during the regular season.
With major question marks around their passing attack, the Irish will likely rely on sophomore running backs Audric Estime (825 yards and 11 touchdowns) and Logan Diggs (732 yards and three touchdowns). South Carolina ranked 112th in rushing yards allowed (192 YPG) – setting Notre Dame's backs up for a monster performance on Friday.
Why South Carolina Could Cover The Spread
South Carolina put together a strong season despite mediocre metrics. The Gamecocks are solid offensively, ranking 42nd in scoring (31.7 PPG) and 73rd in total offense (381 YPG). They feature a below-average defense that ranks 78th in points allowed (27.5 PPG) and 79th in total defense (392 YPG). The Gamecocks picked up a number of big wins to end the season including a 25-point win over then-fifth-ranked Tennessee and a one-point win over then-eighth-ranked Clemson. South Carolina will be without two of their star defensive players as DT Zacch Pickens and DB Cam Smith both opted out in preparation for the NFL Draft.
Far and away South Carolina's best chance of covering the spread comes via quarterback Spencer Rattler. The Oklahoma transfer put together a strong inaugural SEC season as he threw for 2,780 yards and 16 touchdowns. Rattler completed 67% of his passes. While he was up and down to start the year, Rattler finished strong. Rattler threw for 438 yards and six touchdowns in their win over Tennessee. He followed that up with a 360-yard, two-touchdown performance against Clemson. The Fighting Irish do have a strong pass defense that ranked 21st in the country in yards allowed (191 YPG) but they were torched by Heisman winner Caleb Williams. Notre Dame allowed Williams to complete 18 of his 22 passes and a near-perfect QBR of 97.6.
On the receiving end of most of Rattler's passes is junior wideout Antwane Wells Jr. Wells Jr. finished fourth in the SEC in receiving yards as he amassed 898 yards. He led his team with 63 receptions and six touchdowns as well. While the Fighting Irish do have a strong secondary, Wells finished the season on a tear. In his last two games, Wells caught 20 passes for 308 yards and two touchdowns.
Final Notre Dame-South Carolina Prediction & Pick
Given Notre Dame's quarterback uncertainty, I like Spencer Rattler and South Carolina to at least keep this one within a field goal, if not win outright.
Final Notre Dame-South Carolina Prediction & Pick: South Carolina Gamecocks +3.5 (-110)
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