The revamped Georgetown Hoyas and Butler Bulldogs meet in their first Big East matchup of the season. Both teams have leaned on the transfer portal and recruiting to improve their starting lineups. It is time to continue our college basketball odds series with a Georgetown-Butler prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Georgetown is 7-4 this season as new head coach Ed Cooley tinkers with the lineup to find the right combination to take on Big East play. It is time to see if he has found the right mix with the Hoyas suiting up for the first Big East action of the season. Transfers Dontrez Styles and Supreme Cook started every game, with Styles averaging 15.2 points per game and Cook averaging 10.7 points and 8.6 rebounds. Big East scoring leader Jayden Epps has missed the last two games with illness but could return on Tuesday night. If not, freshman Rowan Brumbaugh will get the start again. Brumbaugh led the starters with 15 points on Saturday against Notre Dame, with the Hoyas taking the game 72-68 in overtime.
Butler's starting lineup hasn't changed over the 11 games, with four transfers leading the way. Pierre Brooks II, the Michigan State transfer, leads Butler with 16.8 points per game. Jahmyl Telfort, DJ Davis, and Posh Alexander are averaging double digits. Alexander is the only one familiar with Big East play, spending the past three seasons at St. John's. An enormous help is the Big East-leading 22.7 bench points per game. Butler has a perfect chance to improve on last year's 6-14 conference record.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Georgetown-Butler Odds
Georgetown: +11.5 (-110) ML (+520)
Butler: -11.5 (-110) ML (-750)
Over: 149.5 (-110)
Under: 149.5 (-110)
How to Watch Georgetown vs. Butler
Time: 6 PM ET/3 PM PT
TV: Fox Sports 1
Stream: FuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Georgetown Will Cover The Spread
Georgetown has come a long way from finishing last in the Big East in 2022-23. They matched last season's win total on Saturday with an upset win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Georgetown was led by the play of freshman center Drew Fielder, who scored 16 points off the bench. The probability of Georgetown covering the spread will boost if Jayden Epps is available. He missed the past two games with an illness and is questionable to play in this game. He leads the team with 18.9 points per game.
The pace at which both teams will play will help Georgetown stay within the number. Georgetown plays at a 128th-ranked tempo, according to Kenpom, while Butler is one of the slowest teams in the nation, ranking 196th. For Georgetown to stay within the 11.5 number, they need limited possessions and efficient scoring. The slow pace will help to limit the possessions, but the efficient scoring may hinge on the availability of Epps.
Why Butler Will Cover The Spread
Despite the improved record, Georgetown is still amongst the worst in the nation, according to KenPom. They rank 111th in offensive efficiency and 278th in defensive. They are also one of the slowest teams, ranking 196th in tempo. Butler bests Georgetown in every area, ranking 47th in offensive efficiency and 85th in defensive. They do play faster than Georgetown, with a 128th-ranked tempo.
Butler is a different team this season with all their new transfers. They had a small bump in the road in November when they lost two straight to Michigan State and FAU. However, they have won six straight since then, including over Penn State, Boise State, and Texas Tech. They were underdogs and a favorite once in those games but covered the spreads convincingly.
Final Georgetown-Butler Prediction & Pick
Both teams are resurging this season, but the Butler resurgence may have more staying power than Georgetown's. Georgetown's recent win over Notre Dame is their only decisive victory this season. The rest of their wins have come when they are heavy favorites. Even with their win/loss success, their against-the-spread record is abysmal, with a 3-7-0 mark in their last ten. Georgetown will be in trouble on Tuesday night if Jayden Epps misses another game, as their depth may not be able to keep up as an underdog in two consecutive games. Their young bench players had enormous nights in the upset win over Notre Dame, but a date with Georgetown will be a more difficult test.
These teams aren't as close as their records would have you believe. The Butler offense against Georgetown's defense will be the most significant differential in this matchup. Butler's offense is ranked 47th in offensive efficiency, while Georgetown is ranked 278th in defensive efficiency. Butler may not play at a high pace, but they are a highly efficient team, scoring 96,97, and 103 points in three of their last four games. If Butler can score at will against the 278th-ranked defense of Georgetown, they can easily cover this spread. If they do score at will, the 111th-ranked offense of Georgetown will have trouble getting back into it against the 81st-ranked defense.
Final Georgetown-Butler Prediction & Pick: Butler -11.5 (-110)
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