LeBron James has called his rebuilt team's de facto second half “the most important” regular-season stretch of his career. Do the Golden State Warriors feel similarly in wake of a wholly disappointing first first four months of 2022-23?
The answer better be yes, and not just because the defending champions' hopes of repeating—and winning an unprecedented fifth ring in nine years—rest largely on how their final 24 games unfold. The big-picture stakes stand even taller than how this season ends.
With Draymond Green set to hit free agency, Klay Thompson up for an extension and Joe Lacob on the hook for another massive luxury tax bill come 2023-24, major changes could be coming if the Dubs' season-long malaise extends into spring.
The dynastic stars will likely remain in place regardless, but ownership surely won't greenlight running the same roster core back next season unless Golden State plays title-worthy basketball while ramping up toward the playoffs. No pressure.
Here are three bold predictions for the Warriors as sun sets on the 2023 NBA All-Star break.
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3. Jonathan Kuminga keeps leveling up
Kuminga's rapid in-season development into a two-way impact player off the bench has gone largely unnoticed outside the Bay, and it's not hard to see why. Highlights like thunderous dunks, acrobatic finishes, weak-side blocks and lockdown isolation defense have indeed come, but what's made him an indispensable piece of the Warriors' puzzle is how comfortable the 20-year-old has been filling a supporting role.
Kuminga won't be starring for Golden State over the next seven weeks. His raw numbers may not change much, either. Entrenched in Steve Kerr's rotation and thriving as a play-finishing, multi-positional defender, though, Kuminga began flashing offensive chops leading up to the All-Star break that hint at his burgeoning growth.
He's shooting 47.1% from deep since returning from an ankle injury on January 20th, almost exclusively launching open looks within the flow of the offense. Kuminga has leveraged his increasing threat as a shooter into driving aggressive close-outs, showing the poise to get all the way to the rim, stop for short-range jumpers and kick the ball out to open teammates after sucking in the defense.
Now that his jumper is falling, all Kuminga needs to do to continue leveling up offensively is continue taking what defenders give him. Combined with his own versatility and disruption on both the other end and the offensive and defensive glass, Kuminga's subtle offensive development will go a long way toward the Warriors making noise in the West as the playoffs fast approach.
2. Andrew Wiggins flips the switch
Wiggins just hasn't been the same player since returning from the longest absence of his career in early January. Even random spurts of the multi-effort intensity and overall edge in the interim that made him an elite role player during last season's title run were interrupted by another bout with illness.
Don't confuse Wiggins' recent penchant for floating in and out of games as a complete reversion to the player he was before joining the Warriors, though. Fully healthy and up to speed given enough leeway to re-acclimate from missed time, glimmers of his playoff peak were there before Wiggins missed the Dubs' pre-All-Star loss to the LA Clippers due to personal reasons.
Wiggins has proven throughout his career he really can flip the switch when it matters most. With the Minnesota Timberwolves, that meant getting up for individual matchups with the likes of LeBron and Paul George, or putting on a show against his hometown Toronto Raptors. He left the light on throughout the postseason, stepping confidently into it while at times out-playing Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown with a trophy on the line.
Expect no less from Wiggins as Golden State makes its playoff push. Even if he never regains the red-hot hand he had from beyond the arc before going down with injury, an engaged, aggressive and confident Wiggins on both ends will be good enough to help spearhead the Warriors' late-season rise up the standings.
1. Warriors finish top-six in the West
The Utah Jazz made their intentions clear at the trade deadline. So did the Oklahoma City Thunder, though Dario Saric could give them a workable facsimile of the floor-spacing that made departed Mike Muscala such a pivotal part of the offense. The New Orleans Pelicans just aren't the same without Zion Williamson, sidelined an additional few weeks after re-aggravating his hamstring injury.
Karl-Anthony Towns' return really could be a negative for the Minnesota Timberwolves, just like Russell Westbrook's addition to the LA Clippers, who have the second-toughest finishing schedule in the NBA. The Sacramento Kings might be the league's best story, but DeAaron Fox's crunch-time heroics, a subpar defense and their own difficult remaining slate make their grasp on a playoff spot tenuous.
Frustrating as the Warriors' play this season has been to date, basically, they somehow still have a real chance to avoid the play-in tournament—even absent significant team-wide improvement. But players and coaches returned to practice on Tuesday insisting they were refreshed, ready to meet the moment of the regular season's stretch run.
“We got a lot of good stuff ahead of us. Some important games coming up, and plenty left for us to achieve in the season, so we're excited for that,” Kerr said, per NBC Sports Bay Area's Dalton Johnson.
Steph Curry should be back in the next couple weeks. Draymond Green seems poised to will his team to its defensive ceiling. Maybe Gary Payton II returns before April, affording Golden State the defensive versatility and an ignited transition game its lacked so often throughout 2022-23.
It would be close to shocking if the Warriors went down without much fight, failing to capitalize on the opportunity to wash away season-long labors by finishing top-six in the West. If they really dig deep to muster their championship mettle and the injury bug stops biting, don't be surprised if the Dubs—just three-and-a-half games behind the third-place Kings—even earn home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
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