The No. 3 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs (30-5) face the No. 2 seed UCLA Bruins (31-5) in the Sweet 16! Action tips off at 9:45 p.m. ET. Below we continue our March Madness odds series with a Gonzaga-UCLA prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Gonzaga took down Grand Canyon and TCU in the first two rounds to extend their win streak to 11 games. The Bulldogs covered 39% of their games while 59% went over the projected point total. UCLA made short work of UNC Asheville before handling Northwestern in the first two rounds. The Bruins covered 62% of their games while 50% went over. This will be the second meeting of the last two years between the West Coast juggernauts. Gonzaga won both prior matchups including in the 2021 Final Four thanks to a Jalen Suggs buzzer-beater.
Here are the Gonzaga-UCLA March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Gonzaga-UCLA Odds
Gonzaga: +1.5 (-112)
UCLA: -1.5 (-108)
Over: 145.5 (-110)
Under: 145.5 (-110)
How To Watch Gonzaga vs. UCLA
TV: CBS
Stream: Paramount+
Time: 9:45 p.m. ET/ 6:45 p.m. PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Gonzaga Could Cover The Spread
Gonzaga features arguably the most potent offense in the country as they average 86.3 PPG – the most in Division-1. That is backed up by the advanced metrics as the Bulldogs rank first in KenPom's offensive efficiency metric. Gonzaga plays at a brisk pace as they rank 40th in tempo. They do an excellent job moving the ball and making extra passes with their 16.1 APG – 15th-most in the country. Those extra passes lead to a ton of open looks for their plethora of scorers as the Bulldogs lead the country in field goal percentage. They are dangerous both inside and outside of the arc, ranking in the top 10 in both two and three-point field goal percentages. Additionally, Gonzaga does an incredible job taking care of the ball and limiting mistakes as they hold the 10th-lowest turnover rate.
Gonzaga's high-powered offense is led by two-time WCC Player of the Year Drew Timme. The 6'10” senior put together his best season yet with averages of 21.1 PPG and 7.3 RPG. He is highly efficient as well, shooting 62% from the floor. Timme has emerged as one of the premier players in the tournament as he racked up 49 points and 14 rebounds in their first two games. He memorably dropped 25 pints on the Bruins when they met in the 2021 Final Four and will assuredly be a major factor in this matchup's outcome.
While Timme serves as the face of the Gonzaga program, junior Julian Strawther has quietly taken a huge leap in his second season as a starter. The 6'7″ guard averages 15.3 PPG and 6.1 RPG for the season. Additionally, Strawther is a lights-out three-point shooter who averages 2.2 threes per game while shooting 42% from deep. He's been a force all over the floor during their first two tournament games, racking up 38 points and 19 rebounds.
Why UCLA Could Cover The Spread
UCLA is essentially the polar opposite of Gonzaga. While the Bulldogs may possess the most potent offense in the country, the Bruins match them with their stout defense. In addition to allowing just 60.2 PPG, UCLA ranks second in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric. They do an excellent job forcing tough shots, holding opponents to the 18th-lowest field goal percentage in the country. Additionally, UCLA features a number of pests who loves to get in passing lanes and rack up steals. Consequently, the Bruins force a turnover at the 10th-highest rate in the league. That being said, Gonzaga will get buckets regardless of UCLA's defense as it'll be up to their offense if they want to cover.
UCLA features a number of capable scorers but is led first and foremost by Pac-12 Player of the Year Jaime Jaquez Jr. The 6'7″ senior has had a stellar final season as a Bruin, averaging 17.5 PPG and 8.1 RPG. He's been incredibly efficient as well, shooting 48% from the floor and averaging under two turnovers per game. He's been a man on a mission in the tournament thus far, accumulating 41 points, 16 rebounds, and five steals. He was a major player for the 2021 team that lost to Gonzaga when he scored 19 points on 50% shooting.
Final Gonzaga-UCLA Prediction & Pick
What happens when an immovable object (UCLA's defense) meets an unstoppable force (Gonzaga's offense)? Answer: one heck of a basketball game. UCLA projects as the better team here and will certainly be looking for revenge from the 2021 Final Four. That being said, Gonzaga is rolling right now and Timme is playing as well as anyone in the country. In such an even matchup, I like the under in a game I envision to be in the 60s rather than the 70s Vegas currently projects.
Final Gonzaga-UCLA Prediction & Pick: Under 145.5 (-110).
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