It's MLB trade season, and the biggest name in baseball is the biggest question mark in the entire sports landscape. Is Los Angeles Angels' two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani on the trade block? That's unclear, but what is clear is that every other team wants what the Angels already have. With that in mind, should the Texas Rangers trade with their AL West rival to acquire Ohtani? Let's examine ESPN's hypothetical Rangers trade package to get Ohtani from the Angels.

 

The Trade

ESPN proposed a Shohei Ohtani trade package for nine teams with the means to pull it off. The proposed trade for the Rangers included the following:

  1. Brock Porter, RHP: The Rangers drafted Brock Porter out of high school in the fourth round of the 2022 MLB Draft. Porter is 20 years old and has recorded a 2.55 ERA in 53.0 innings at Class-A Down East Wood Ducks in his first professional season. He's the No. 4 prospect in the Rangers farm system
  2. Jack Leiter, RHP: Leiter is one half of a Vanderbilt pitching duo that came as a mean 1-2 punch. The other half is Kumar Rocker, who is also with the Rangers, but underwent Tommy John Surgery in May. The Rangers took Leiter with the second overall pick in 2021. Leiter is 23 and could have the highest upside in the Rangers' organization. However, his development has been slow as he has a 5.53 ERA through 38 games (158 innings) at Double-A Frisco.
  3. Ezequiel Duran, IF: Duran has filled in for Rangers shortstop Corey Seager a fair amount this season and done a great job with his opportunities. In 78 games, Duran is hitting .297 with 13 home runs and a 130 OPS+. He also doesn't become a free agent until 2028.
  4. Justin Foscue, IF: Foscue is a former first-round pick in 2020 and is 24 years old. In 75 games at Triple-A Round Rock, he's hitting .268 with 11 homers and seven stolen bases. For the foreseeable future, however, the Rangers do not have openings in the middle infield.
  5. Yeison Morrobel, OF: Morrobel was a top prospect in the 2021 international class. He's still just 19, but he's a ways away from making it up to the big leagues.

 

Why the Angels shouldn't do this trade

For simplicity, I'm going to restrict this to a baseball viewpoint and ignore the obvious fact that trading Ohtani would decimate Angels' revenue from ticket sales. I won't call the Angels a small-market team down in Anaheim given the proximity to Los Angeles, but they are a baby brother team. As a franchise that is completely overshadowed by the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Angels must try to cling to Ohtani for relevance.

Anyways, let's just get this out of the way. If I'm calling the shots for the Angels, I'm not trading Shohei Ohtani. Period.

Unless his agent has explicitly told the front office that Ohtani won't re-sign under any circumstances, the Angels have to roll the dice on this one.

Ohtani has expressed he wants to win, but everyone wants to win. This isn't the NBA or the NFL where taking a huge chunk of the salary cap is counterproductive to winning. There is no salary cap. The teams that spend big are generally going to be the ones that are winning.

There's no reason to believe Ohtani isn't going to remain loyal to the Angels.

The thing about trading superstars in baseball is you're getting prospects in return, not starting players. Prospects, particularly in baseball, have no guarantee of panning out. Out of all players drafted No. 1 overall, only three of them are in the Hall of Fame.

So, evaluating prospects is a bit of a crapshoot in terms of their future production. The Angels' reason to trade Shohei is that there's a chance he leaves in free agency. The other outcome is he doesn't, and they have the best player in the sport for as long as they choose to sign him.

If they do trade him, there's a chance that none of the prospects they get back pan out. Even if they do pan out, are any of them ever going to be as valuable as Ohtani? Which chance would you take?

 

Why the Rangers also shouldn't do this trade

So, the Rangers selling the farm to land Ohtani is kind of the same thing as taking a chance that they can re-sign him. However, it's really hard to do that when you have to sell a lot of great pieces that project to be a part of what's already been such a great rebuild. Especially when you aren't guaranteed to keep Ohtani in the long term.

Here's the Rangers' current picture: the front office has spent big in free agency, and it's paid off. Marcus Semien, Corey Seager and a rebuilt rotation have been slam dunks. Jacob deGrom, despite missing the majority of this year with Tommy John surgery, is actually the best player in baseball on his best day. Yes, even better than Ohtani. There's no replacing an unhittable starting pitcher, and deGrom will be back next year.

Now, they're first in the AL West at 59-43 (though they're hanging by a thread) and are enjoying a highly successful season after what's been a really disappointing 6-7 year stretch for the Rangers. Texas is likely to make the postseason this year, but it's not only because of some savvy free agency moves. The Rangers farm system is what supported the rebuild, and it's going to support the Rangers' future ascension to the top-tier of baseball if this trajectory continues.

Yes, Ohtani is the most valuable player in baseball. But, the thing is, the Rangers getting Ohtani would more-likely-than-not, be a three-month rental. There are several other teams with deep pockets that are in better positions to contend for titles than the Rangers, and Ohtani has no loyalty to Texas.

The only reason to make this trade is if the Rangers really believe they would win the World Series, or at least make it there in 2023. Ohtani helps achieve that goal, but again, this isn't the NBA or the NFL. Baseball doesn't work like that. Ohtani is great, but it's not the same as landing Giannis Antetokounmpo or Patrick Mahomes. One player just can't influence the game the same way.

The way I see it is this: Texas has a great thing going. They finished with 102 losses just two years ago, and things are going so well now. They have strong veteran talent and a wealth of promising young prospects. The current success paired with the bright future just isn't something a team like the Rangers should mess with.

Texas can't afford to sacrifice their whole farm system and have this not pan out. Trust in the methods that got you to this point, and don't give it all up for one player, even if he's unlike anything baseball has seen in 100 years.

 

Trade Grade

Alright, we'll keep this short. I don't think the Rangers or the Angels should make this trade because it's too risky for either franchise.

However, if this deal were to go through, it's a reasonable set of compensation for the Angels, and it's not too devastating for the Rangers. We will grade it as such.

From the Rangers' perspective, they protect their top 2 prospects: Evan Carter and Owen White.

For the Angels, they get high-end rotation talent — which they desperately need – in Brock Porter and Jack Leiter. They also get a ready-to-go utility guy in Ezequiel Duran under contract for another five years.

Rangers grade: B+

Angels grade: B