With their dramatic 108-102 overtime win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday, the Los Angeles Lakers clinched the seventh seed in the Western Conference and a date with the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round of the 2023 postseason.
By all accounts, this isn't a traditional 2-7 playoff matchup. After all, the Lakers' top two players, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis, are battle-tested with championship experience. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, are one of the youngest teams in basketball and haven't experienced much playoff success together aside from a first-round series win over the Wolves a year ago.
While it's understandable why some folks have the Lakers winning this series because of their championship mettle, the Grizzlies will come out on top — they are the better team and have been the better team all year. With all this in mind, here are two reasons why the Memphis Grizzlies will beat the Los Angeles Lakers in the 2023 NBA playoffs:
2 reasons Grizzlies will beat Lakers in 2023 NBA playoffs
Ja Morant
The Lakers are a very solid defensive team. However, their best defensive players are in their front court, such as Anthony Davis and Jarred Vanderbilt. In the backcourt, the Lakers have a lot of scoring firepower with the likes of D'Angelo Russell, Dennis Schroder, and Malik Beasley, but none of these names are better than average defenders, and none have the ability to slow down Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant.
Morant has had himself a rollercoaster of a season thanks to some off-court drama, but he hasn't missed a beat since returning from suspension. Over his last ten games, Morant is averaging 20.4 points, 7.7 assists, and 5.1 rebounds in just 29 minutes per contest.
The Lakers' best bet for stopping Morant from scoring is to throw double teams his way because none of their guards have the IQ or foot speed to consistently stick in front of Morant. But double-teaming a passer like Morant is going to result in open looks for his teammates, so it'll be interesting to see how the Lakers pick their poison. Will they frequently throw multiple bodies at the former Murray State star or trust that Davis will make life difficult for Morant at the rim when Morant inevitably blows by their guards?
Fast break points
Seemingly ever since the Grizzlies hired Taylor Jenkins to be their head coach, the team has ranked among the top of the league in fast break points year in and year out. This is no coincidence, as forcing turnovers and parlaying them into easy scores has long been the modus operandi of Jenkins-led Grizzlies teams. And this season was no different, as the Grizzlies finished second in the league in transition points per game at 18.0, just 0.1 points behind the Indiana Pacers.
Conversely, it just so happens to be that the Lakers were one of the worst teams at preventing fast break points during the regular season, as they allowed 15.4 per game, the fourth-most of any team in basketball.
All in all, when factoring in the Lakers' lack of high-level perimeter defenders at the guard positions and the fact that they're worse at stopping fast break baskets than most teams, it's clear that the Grizzlies should beat the Lakers. Expect the Memphis Grizzlies to finish off the Los Angeles Lakers in six games and advance to the second round of the playoffs.
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