In a fairly weak HBCU football slate, the Prairie View A&M-Southern matchup is easily the most consequential game this weekend. Southern University has struggled mightily, and they are searching for what happens with their team next. Wow, they're not out of contention for the SWAC West as far as record, they clearly aren't going to make it far in the race this year. Meanwhile, Prairie View A&M seems to already be on the path of greatness.
My prediction is simple: Prairie View is going to win. But their win will open up a path to a SWAC Championship birth in Tremaine Jackson’s first season.
The reason for my confidence lies in the foundational mindset established by Head Coach Tremaine Jackson. During his introductory press conference, Jackson said that he did not want to be a great SWAC team; he wanted to be a great FCS team.
This shows a different level of aspiration. While there is nothing wrong with being a great HBCU team, success often requires aiming higher than your current designation. Jackson brings that high-ceiling expectation from his time at Valdosta State, a Division II powerhouse. At Valdosta State, when he arrived in 2022, he inherited a program that had just made the 2021 national championship game, and the expectation was a continued national championship trajectory. He is now applying that same aggressive national standard at Prairie View.
The current fortune of the SWAC West division, and this game specifically, was decided by one play back in the State Fair Classic. If the final pass from Cam Peters had failed to result in a walk-off touchdown, we would be having a totally different conversation, one focused on Texas Southern’s potential to make a run at the West title as the Panthers look to build a winning foundation in Jackson’s first season.
But because Prairie View’s offense executed that final play call and scored the walk-off touchdown, the Panthers are now the clear favorites. They already beat their biggest foe, Texas Southern, giving them the head-to-head advantage. A win over Southern essentially rolls out the red carpet for them. They’ve already beaten Alcorn and Grambling prior to their bye week. After Southern, only UAPB stands in their way, and they’re likely to beat them.
I have no hope for Southern in this matchup. Prairie View A&M will win because Southern is failing in the two most crucial aspects of football: they cannot score, and they cannot defend. Yes, they have talented individuals like Trey Holly and Ckelby Givens, but they do not function as a complete team. Furthermore, their inability to score puts constant pressure on their defense, forcing them to spend too much time on the field. That is a recipe for being dominated by a focused and ascending program like Prairie View.
While Prairie View A&M is still not in its final form—I believe they will be much better in year two and year three of the Jackson era—this game is rich with narrative potential. If the Panthers defeat Southern, they will have sealed their fate. They will secure the SWAC West title and earn a ticket to Jackson, Mississippi, to face the likely East division champion in the SWAC Championship. This game may not be pretty, but its consequences are everything.
