The Miami Heat weren’t at their best against the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday evening, and their 116-105 loss has put them in a position where they need to beat the Chicago Bulls if they’re to make the playoffs this year. The Bulls certainly won’t provide them with an easy win, particularly with their tails up after a come-from-behind win against the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday, but there is still plenty pointing towards a Miami win. These are three reasons why the Heat can get the chocolates and make their way into the playoffs this Friday.

Playoff Jimmy

Of all the players in the league, Jimmy Butler is one of the best at finding an extra gear when it matters most. Last year was a prime example. After averaging 21.4 points at 48.0% from the field during the regular season, he averaged 27.4 points in his 17 playoff games – and at a greater efficiency no less, with 50.6% of his postseason attempts going down. He scored 40+ points four times during that run to the Eastern Conference Finals, including, most notably, a 47-point, nine-rebound, eight-assist, four-steal masterpiece against the Boston Celtics with the Heat in a win-or-go-home situation.

Against the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday, Butler wasn’t able to harness that form which is so typical for him in big games. He went just 6-19 from the field for his 21 points, and though he had nine assists to go with it, it was far from the postseason Jimmy Buckets with which we’re so familiar. Particularly with the Heat’s proverbial back against the wall, it’s hard to imagine him failing to deliver twice in a row.

Heat home court

Home court is an easy thing to point to as a defining factor in any individual NBA game, but there’s a reason for that. It’s a significant advantage, particularly in big games like this, and when things get tense late as they so often do, the impact of a raucous crowd and the comfort of playing on a floor with which a team is familiar cannot be understated.

What’s more, the Heat have been particularly good on their home floor this year, even if that wasn’t the case against the Hawks on Tuesday. In the regular season they went 27-14 in Miami, and that’s including a relatively slow start there. From Christmas onwards, the Heat went a hugely impressive 18-6 on their home floor prior to their play-in loss against the Hawks, so it will take the bucking of a significant trend for the Bulls to come away from Florida with the win on Friday.

The free throw line

The Bulls were deserving winners against the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday. After going down 66-47, they flicked a switch, and led by Zach LaVine played some high-quality basketball over the last 18 or so minutes to get the win. It could, however, very easily have been different. The Raptors woes at the free-throw line weren’t lost on anyone, particularly DeMar DeRozan’s daughter, and having hit just 50% of their 36 attempts from the line, they’ll likely spend much of their summer ruing their wayward execution of a very fundamental skill.

It’s unlikely that lightning will strike twice in this regard. The Heat should be able to find their way to the line plenty, as the Raptors did; they’re sixth in the league for free-throw rate, which essentially refers to how many free throws they average per possession. And unlike the Raptors on Wednesday, they don’t miss often. The Heat hit 83.1% of their free throw attempts, better than every team in the league with the exception of the Philadelphia 76ers. They should be able to get to the charity stripe with regularity on Friday evening, and it’s unlikely they’ll gift the Bulls the number of missed points as what the Raptors did.

The Heat don’t have a great record against the Bulls this year. In fact, it’s terrible. They’ve lost all three games against their Eastern Conference counterparts, but they get a chance to turn it all around in their most significant game of the season to date this Friday evening. And there is plenty of reason to think that they can do exactly that. With a big game from Jimmy Butler, the advantage of home court and their ability to get to and convert at the free throw line, they can earn themselves a win and with it, a seven-game series against the Milwaukee Bucks.