The Indianapolis Colts will head into the their matchup Sunday afternoon not only 2-1 but in possession of the second-best point differential in the NFL at +39—behind only the reigning NFC champs the San Francisco 49ers.
Despite trailing the NFC North leaders by a game in the loss column in this still young season, the Colts will travel to Chicago two-point favorites, as they look to capitalize on a quarterback situation for the Bears, that can at best be described as “shaky.”
With an opportunity to match wins with the division-leading Tennessee Titans, here are our four bold predictions in this rematch of Super Bowl XLI.
1. The Colts are going to run wild on the Chicago defensive line
By the numbers and the eye test, there's no denying the Bears are in possession of one the best defensive units in the NFL.
Led by all-world linebacker Khalil Mack, Chicago excels at putting pressure on offensive lines, and wreaking havoc on opponents looking to buy time for routes to develop. And yet, through the first several weeks of the 2020 season, the Bears have struggled to contain the rush, despite finding themselves in situations where that should have been a given.
Against the Detroit Lions, Chicago allowed the seemingly ageless Adrian Peterson to average 6.6 yards per carry, though they were able to rebound somewhat by the numbers the following week, with the Giants gaining just over 4.0 YPC—until you remember that New York operated much of the day without Saquon Barkley. The real concern for the Bears, however, was their performance this past weekend, when they allowed a jaw-dropping 5.76 YPC to a team lead by Todd Gurley, a back whose battled chronic knee aliments for three years.
While still in small sample size territory, its been beginning to look as though Chicago's uneven performance against the run, will be a season-long ailment. Against the Colts, there's every reason to expect that continue.
Looking to jumpstart what has been a subpar start for rookie back Jonathan Taylor, expect the Colts to feature a heavy dose of run action early in Sunday's game, seeking not only to attack a possible weak point of the Chicago defense, but generate opportunities for play-action sets with which the Bears have struggled. Having failed to hit holes effectively through his initial three games, there's ample evidence to suggest that Frank Reich will look to provide Taylor with as many opportunities as he wants.
2. Khalil Mack will fail to record a sack
After placing third in Pro Football Focus' ranking of offensive lines during the 2019 season, the Colts entered the year rising two spots, to occupy the top of the list, following the re-signing of left tackle Anthony Castonzo. Though they've yet to play against an elite pass-rush this season, Khalil Mack and the Bears will present them the chance to demonstrate just how effective they've become.
Playing primarily in man coverage, Chicago relies on their talent upfront—specifically Mack—to overpower teams on their way to the quarterback. The challenge that faces the Bears, however, is that Indy features no clear weak link by which to attack, featuring three former first-round picks. That the Colts will also likely use a heavy dose of play action, as discussed above, should buy Philip Rivers just enough room to attack a defense that is built to prevent a pass leaving a quarterback's hands.
3. Indy's secondary will have a big day
Coming into the year ranked a measly 26th by Pro Football Focus, the Colts' secondary was the single biggest question mark for Indianapolis entering the season. Following the loss of Kenny Moore to injury, the Colts finished the year ranked 23rd in pass defense, despite intercepting 15 passes—a mark that sets them in the top 10 around the league for forced turnovers.
This type of feast-or-famine performance was one of the reasons the Colts were so aggressive in adding veterans to their roster, including cornerback Xavier Rhodes and Rivers. Although they may not have significantly raised the ceiling of the team, their ability to stabilize the floor was viewed as integral for team not far from playoff contention.
Against the Bears' newly minted starter Nick Foles, the Colts' secondary should be primed for success. Primarily successful when he is able to get the ball out quickly, Foles has historically struggled when defenses force him to make plays. Featuring below-average mobility, the former Eagle is dependent on schemes that prize speed over long routes, mitigating pressure and potential fumbles that have plagued him throughout his career.
With the Colts having begun to implement a Cover 3 scheme designed to stymie exactly the kind of attack with which Foles is accustomed, Indy is in great position from a schematic standpoint. Featuring three defensive backs, the Cover 3 allows the cornerbacks to guard against vertical routes, while employing a safety underneath too patrol short yardage, negating the type of easy completions that are seen against zone defenses. In forcing Foles to navigate a more complex defense, the Colts are banking on the fact that every second the quarterback takes to make a decision, is one more closer to the type of mistake that has tripped him up in the past.
4. Colts win by 10: 24-14
While they may not be lead by top-line talent, Indianapolis is successful because they are so effective at countering opponents' strengths. Highly underrated when compared to the burgeoning young talent of coaches such as Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan, Frank Reich has shown time and again his penchant for adjustments, since being selected by the Colts as a consolation prize following Josh McDaniels spurning them.
Built around a superb offensive line, and a defense that looks to outsmart you, Indy wins by playing mistake free and inviting opponents to beat themselves. Against a suspect Bears team, despite their 3-0 record, the Colts should only add to their impressive point differential.
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