We’re set for yet another betting prediction and pick for UFC Paris as the Preliminary card reaches its apex with this featured fight in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division. UFC veteran Ion Cutelaba of Moldova will take on the debuting Ivan Erlsan of Croatia. Check out our UFC odds series for our Cutelaba-Erslan prediction and pick.
Ion Cutelaba (17-10-1) has gone 6-9-1 within the UFC promotion since 2016. He’s been on a tough stretch of fights since 2022 and has just one win over Tanner Boser in his last five fights. Falling to a tough unanimous decision his last time out, he’ll look to improve his record and get back in the win column here. Cutelaba stands 6’1″ with a 75-inch reach.
Ivan Erslan (14-3) will be making his UFC debut in Paris. He’s gone 4-3 within the KSW fight promotion and 3-0 in FNC since 2020, so it seems as though he’s ready for the bright lights of the UFC and to finally make his debut. His last eight wins have all come by knockout and he’ll be looking for a similar result in this one. Erslan stands 6’2″. with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Paris Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Paris Odds: Ion Cutelaba-Ivan Erslan Odds
Ion Cutelaba: -112
Ivan Erslan: -108
Over 1.5 rounds: +124
Under 1.5 rounds: -160
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Free Trial)*
Why Ion Cutelaba Will Win
Snapping a three-fight losing streak, Ion Cutelaba turned heads with his impressive knockout over Tanner Boser, who came into that fight in his best physical shape to date. Fans were expecting much of the same in Cutelaba’s following fight against Philipe Lins, but he was bested on the feet and controlled on the ground for most of the fight, resulting in another loss. Cutelaba seemed flat during that fight and it’s tough to say what the root of his problems could be. Still, he’s an extremely determined competitor and he’ll be looking to bounce back in emphatic fashion against a debuting prospect.
Cutelaba is still coming into this fight as a dangerous finisher, but we’ve seen him take a more measured approach over his last few bouts in not chasing the finish so frantically. His kryptonite has been the stiff jab up the middle, so Cutelaba will have to keep his head moving and remain active in slipping these punches. His opponent isn’t one to spend too much time on the ground, so Cutelaba could earn some points here if he’s able to hold Erslan down and land some ground-and-pound on him. Either way, it feels as though this is a must-win for Cutelaba and he’ll be ultra-focused heading into this fight.
Why Ivan Erslan Will Win
Ivan Erslan is making his promotional debut as a blistering finisher in the Eastern European MMA circuit. He’s had seven bouts, four of which he’s won, in the KSW promotion and he’s become known for his heavy hands and wild knockout power. Moving forward, Erslan doesn’t fight with too many frills and instead chooses to walk straight towards his opponent in hopes of landing the knockout. With his opponent usually serving as the aggressor, Erslan could see success if he’s able to back Cutelaba up and pressure him from the opening bell. It’ll take some clean shots for him to gain the respect of the Moldovan fighter, but given his power, it’ll only take a few for Cutelaba to know he’s in trouble against Erslan.
Ivan Erslan has notched his last eight consecutive victories via knockout, but he’s also lost three fights during that stretch. This wouldn’t be as concerning if he was facing UFC-level competition, but it remains a big question mark as to how he’ll fair against a fighter with the type of UFC experience that Cutelaba has. This fight will be all about finding the target for Erslan as he can easily turn the lights off with one punch – expect him to march forward relentlessly as he looks for the emphatic finish in this one.
Final Ion Cutelaba-Ivan Erslan Prediction & Pick
Both men are more than willing to stand and bang and if all goes as planned, it’s not likely that this fight will see the judges’ scorecards. For his first fight in the UFC, Ivan Erslan is looking to arrive with a bang and will be hunting for the knockout finish throughout the whole bout. His power is something to be aware of, but his lack of competition up to this point gives us some pause in picking him to win.
Ion Cutelaba, on the other hand, is in a must-win situation and knows the gravity of this fight given his recent shortcomings. He’ll look to stand toe-to-toe with his opponent in swinging for the fences, but he could greatly benefit from a smarter game plan in which he initiates the wrestling and brings his opponent to the mat.
For our final prediction, we’ll roll with Ion Cutelaba to win a tough fight as we see this one ending early.
Final Ion Cutelaba-Ivan Erslan Prediction & Pick: Ion Cutelaba (-112)
Follow Us
Subscribe
