The Jacksonville Jaguars have put together one of the more shocking turnarounds in the NFL this season, and that continued in Week 17 when they easily waltzed past the Houston Texans by a score of 31-3. The Jaguars now have control of the AFC South heading into Week 18, setting themselves up for one of the most exciting games of the final week of the regular season.
The Jags seemed to be dead in the water for much of the first half of the season, but they have put all the pieces of the puzzle together at the perfect time. They have won five of their last six games, including four straight, to take control of the AFC South. With just one game left, it's looking more and more likely the Jaguars will find themselves in the playoffs.
Despite that, their work isn't done yet, as they have to get through one last regular season game in order to find their way into the postseason. So with that in mind, let's take a look at the Jaguars different playoff scenarios now that they have picked up a victory in Week 17, and see where they could end up finishing and who they could end up playing if they do end up in the playoffs.
Jaguars playoff scenarios
The Jaguars win in Week 17 over the Texans was nice, but in the grand scheme of things, it meant nothing. Both Jacksonville and Tennessee entered Week 17 knowing that the AFC South would be decided when they faced off in Week 18. Even though the Titans lost and the Jaguars won in Week 17, nothing there changes.
So for Jacksonville, the stakes here are pretty high. They have been chasing the Titans all season long, and they finally have the top seed in the AFC South all to themselves for now. But that won't matter unless they manage to win one more game in Week 18 against a severely battered Titans team.
Tennessee has really fallen apart due to all of their injuries, none more prominent than quarterback Ryan Tannehill's ankle injury. Tannehill is doing whatever he can to get himself healthy for this game, but even if he does play, it feels like the Jaguars have the upper hand when it comes to locking up the AFC South in Week 18.
If Jacksonville does end up winning this game, they would lock up the number four seed in the AFC, which would put them in line for a wild card matchup with either the Los Angeles Chargers or Baltimore Ravens. Right now, the Chargers just have to win their final game of the season against the Denver Broncos to hold onto the five seed, and that seems rather likely to happen.
In most cases, the Jaguars have to win in Week 18 to make the playoffs. But there's a chance that Jacksonville could actually lose to the Titans and still make it into the playoffs, although it's not nearly as likely, and makes the Jags' life in the playoffs ten times harder. Still, making the playoffs is better than missing them entirely.
This scenario would require the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, and Pittsburgh Steelers to all lose in Week 18 in order for the Jaguars to somehow sneak their way into the playoffs. It's admittedly not very likely to happen, but it is an interesting backup plan for Jacksonville in the event they fall apart against the Titans.
In this scenario, the Jaguars would only be able to get the seven seed, setting themselves up for a much more difficult wild card matchup against either the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, or Cincinnati Bengals. This is obviously not an ideal scenario, and while the Jags would have to cross these teams in order to reach their ultimate goal, that's a path you want to cross in the later rounds.
The good news for Jacksonville is that it's far more likely that they will manage to hold onto the four seed and take on the Chargers or Ravens. Both squads would likely be favored to beat the Jaguars, but Jacksonville would have a much greater shot of beating them than the three aforementioned teams if they were to somehow end up in the seven seed.
But first, the Jaguars need to find a way to get into the playoffs. They have a good shot of doing so, but it all comes down to their Week 18 matchup with the Tennessee Titans. The Titans cannot be taken lightly, but these two teams appear to be heading in opposite directions right now. Either way, Jacksonville's Week 18 contest with Tennessee appears set to be the game of the week, and it will be interesting to see who ends up coming out on top in this one.
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