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We're back with another betting prediction and pick for this stacked UFC 302 card as we turn our attention towards the next bout in the Heavyweight Division. Ranked foes will meet in a high-stakes tilt as No. 7 Jailton Almeida of Brazil will take on No. 13 Alexandr Romanov of Moldova. You don't want to miss these two behemoths go at it! Check out our UFC odds series for our Almeida-Romanov prediction and pick.
Jailton Almeida (20-3) has gone an impressive 6-1 to start his UFC career in the promotion's baddest division. He was undefeated through his first five fights, including wins over Derrick Lewis and Jairzinho Rozenstruik, but he dropped his most recent bout to Curtis Blaydes via TKO. He'll look to insert himself right back into title contention with a win here. Almeida stands 6'3″ with a 79-inch reach.
Alexandr Romanov (17-2) has gone 6-2 in the UFC since 2020. He also started his career hot with five-straight victories against tough competition. However, he lost back-to-back bouts against Marcin Tybura and Alexander Volkov as the betting favorite and fell off his title track. After a most recent win over Blagoy Ivanov, he'll look to silence the division's hottest prospect. Romanov stands 6'2″ with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 302 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC 302 Odds: Jailton Almeida-Alexandr Romanov Odds
Jailton Almeida: -310
Alexandr Romanov: +260
Over 1.5 rounds: -105
Under 1.5 rounds: -125
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Why Jailton Almeida Will Win
Jailton Almeida arguably was and still is the most feared up-and-coming contender in the Heavyweight Division and while he took the L in his last bout, every fighter has a teaching moment sooner or later in their career. Almeida is a unique breed for the division and we've seen him handle some of the biggest fighters in the weight class like sacks of potatoes. Against Curtis Blaydes, he faced a similar athletic big man and his takedown attempts couldn't stifle the JUCO wrestling champion. Still, Almeida will have the wrestling advantage over Romanov and he'll certainly have the bigger gas tank to expend when searching for the submission.
Jailton Almeida isn't perfectly polished with his striking just yet, but he does enough with it to scare opponents into putting their hands up when he throws his hands forward. Once he has them second-guessing, he shoots for vicious double-leg takedowns and lands more often than not. Almeida will have to use all of his physical advantages, including his strength and length, to win this fight on the ground. We've seen Romanov struggled from his back, so Almeida could have a clear path to victory in finding mount and raining down strikes.
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Why Alexandr Romanov Will Win
Alexandr Romanov found success early in his UFC stint in a similar fashion to the rise of Jailton Almeida. Romanov's main game plan is to overpower opponents with his physicality, bring them to the mat, and find a submission with his shear strength. It wasn't until Marcin Tybura exposed his game plan and fended off the takedowns that Romanov began seeing some adversity inside the octagon. He's had to switch his game up and now boasts some formidable boxing hands over his last few fights. If he can stuff Almeida in a similar way to Curtis Blaydes and let his hands go with combinations, he could see some success keeping this fight on the feet.
While Romanov loves to advance on the ground and find submission from the top, he's not great at stopping takedowns with a 20% defense rate and he struggles to get back up from his back. With how well he's been striking, he may have to work his takedown defense and save himself along the fence if he wants to have a chance here. He's very sneaky with his striking in the clinch, so look for Romanov to throw knees up the middle and elbows on the exits.
Final Jailton Almeida-Alexandr Romanov Prediction & Pick
This is a great fight in terms of matchmaking and both men have risen through the ranks with a similar style of fighting. Both men were also exposed for the first time by opponents recently and they'll be looking to get back on track with a win here.
Jailton Almeida will have the strong wrestling advantage here and Romanov defends takedowns at just a 20% clip, much lower than his previous opponent in Curtis Blaydes. Almeida will also be the taller, longer fighter and could look to tie Romanov up along the fence.
Alexandr Romanov will want to keep this fight standing for as long as he can to give himself a chance at landing some blows to his opponent's head. With how deep Almeida shoots for the takedown, we could see Romanov use some of his knees and elbows during the exchanges.
For our prediction, we have to side with Jailton Almeida to get the win here. His loss to Curtis Blaydes was a huge teaching moment and he should come into this fight with a more varied striking attack. Still, his opponent can't stop the takedown and given Almeida's relentless wrestling, I expect him to land and dominate on the ground. Let's roll with the Brazilian to get the win here.
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Final Jailton Almeida-Alexandr Romanov Prediction & Pick: Jailton Almeida (-310); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-105)
