Jannik Sinner takes on Matteo Berrettini at Wimbledon. Our Wimbledon odds series has our Sinner Berrettini prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Sinner Berrettini.

Jannik Sinner confronts one of the nastier elements of his difficult draw at Wimbledon in 2024. It's true that Matteo Berrettini has recently dealt with injuries, and that he isn't as formidable a player as he used to be. Still: Berrettini knows how to play at Wimbledon. He knows how to play at major tournaments. He knows how to play on grass. Berrettini is a former Wimbledon finalist. He has gone deeper in Wimbledon than Sinner has himself. Berrettini has been one of the better players on tour at majors, reaching the fourth round in 10 of his last 14 major appearances. Few on tour are better over that span of time. Berrettini has become a dependable, solid, tough professional who knows how to win matches against quality competition. His maturity in recent years has been impressive to watch. He is not used to facing World No. 1 players this early in major tournaments — that's part of why he made so many fourth rounds, when he was ranked higher and wasn't coming off an injury absence — but it's not as though he has forgotten how to be a competitive professional athlete. This is simply not an assignment Jannik Sinner or any elite player would welcome this early in a big event. As you will see below, the markets don't think this match will be easy or short for Sinner. Let's dive into the numbers below:

Here are the Jannik Sinner-Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

Wimbledon Odds: Jannik Sinner-Matteo Berrettini Odds

Game spread:

Sinner -5.5: +106
Berrettini: +5.5: -138

Money line

Sinner: -520
Berrettini: +385

To win first set

Sinner: -245
Berrettini: +194

Total Games In Match

Over 39.5: -110
Under 39.5: -120

Sinner over 21.5 games: -110
Sinner under 21.5 games: -120

Berrettini over 17.5 games: -124
Berrettini under 17.5 games: -108

How To Watch Jannik Sinner vs Matteo Berrettini

TV: ESPN

Stream: ESPN Plus

Time: Approx. 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT — matches could start 45 minutes earlier or later depending on length of previous matches on court

*Watch Jannik Sinner-Matteo Berrettini LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Jannik Sinner Could Cover The Spread

The evolution of Jannik Sinner has been pronounced and impossible to ignore. That evolution was in evidence in Sinner's first-round Wimbledon win over Yannick Hanfmann. Sinner lost the third set and got hit off the court in that set. He slipped and fell a few times and did not feel comfortable on the court. He could have allowed a lot of negative events to snowball and take on added momentum against him. Instead, he steadied himself in the fourth set and closed down the match. That's the 2024 version of Sinner, a player who manages mini-crises extremely well and doesn't allow 10 bad minutes to hijack a whole match. If he has 10 bad minutes, Sinner regroups and then plays well again. This is how he can fend off Berrettini and win with enough of a margin to cover the spread.

Why Matteo Berrettini Could Cover The Spread

The spread for this match is not huge, but it's not tiny, either. With a 5.5-game spread, Berrettini just has to keep three sets very close (lose 6-4, 7-6, 6-4) or — more likely — win one set. When you see that the over-under for total games in the match is 39.5, that means there's an expectation Berrettini will win at least one set. When you see that Sinner's game total over-under is 21.5, that tells you it is expected that Sinner will probably lose at least one set. Berrettini's over-under game total being 17.5 tells you the markets expect Berrettini will win a set. If he wins a set, he will cover this spread unless he loses a set 6-1 or 6-0. That's very unlikely, given that he has reached a Wimbledon final before, in 2021.

Final Jannik Sinner-Matteo Berrettini Prediction & Pick

Sinner does not look 100-percent physically healthy. The lean is to Berrettini, though our official position is to pass on this match because of the uncertainties surrounding it.

Final Jannik Sinner-Matteo Berrettini Prediction & Pick: Berrettini +5.5 games