Jannik Sinner takes on Taylor Fritz for the U.S. Open championship. Our U.S. Open odds series has our Sinner Fritz prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Sinner Fritz.
As soon as Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic failed to reach the fourth round of the 2024 U.S. Open men's tournament, the men left in the tournament knew this was a unique chance to win a major championship. Taylor Fritz upset No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals. By beating fellow American Frances Tiafoe in a five-set semifinal, Fritz has reached his first major final. It's the first time an American man is in the U.S. Open final since 2006, when Andy Roddick played the World No. 1, Roger Federer.
This year, 18 years later, it's an American against a European World No. 1 yet again, with Jannik Sinner of Italy occupying the role of favorite.
Sinner beat Daniil Medvedev in a battle of top-five seeds in the quarterfinals. The moment Sinner won that match, he became the tournament favorite. He handled his business in the semis on Friday, dismissing Jack Draper in straight sets. Noteworthy is that Sinner bruised his left wrist in that match when falling on the concrete court at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Sinner said the wrist was loosened up by the trainer who visited him during the match, but he doesn't know how the wrist will feel on Saturday, when he will rest and likely not hit many (if any) tennis balls. That could be a concern for the Italian as he seeks his first U.S. Open and his second major championship of 2024, having already won the Australian Open.
Here are the Jannik Sinner-Taylor Fritz U.S. Open Final odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
U.S. Open Final Odds: Jannik Sinner-Taylor Fritz
Game spread:
Sinner -5.5: -102
Fritz: +5.5: -132
Moneyline:
Sinner: -375
Fritz: +310
To win first set:
Sinner: -220
Draper: +176
Total Games In Match
Over 38.5: -118
Under 38.5: -112
Total Games Won:
Sinner over 20.5 games: -124
Sinner under 20.5 games: -108
Fritz over 17.5 games: -124
Fritz under 17.5 games: -108
How To Watch U.S. Open
Time: 2:15 p.m. ET/11:15 a.m. PT
TV: ABC, ESPN Plus
Stream: (Free Trial)
Why Jannik Sinner Could Cover The Spread
If you have been betting on Sinner at this U.S. Open, you have been living a charmed life. Sinner has been playing very close and sluggish opening sets in matches, but then he wins a third or fourth set by a large margin to barely cover the spread. Example: Sinner won two tiebreak sets against Tommy Paul in the fourth round. He needed to win the third set 6-1 to cover the spread. He did. Sinner was a 6.5-game favorite against Draper in the semis. He won the first two sets 7-5, 7-6. He needed to win the third set 6-2 to cover (7 games). He did. Obviously, players don't care whether they cover the spread. All that counts is winning matches. Yet, Sinner is on an amazing run of just barely covering spreads by half a game. Can this run continue? Why not?
Why Taylor Fritz Could Cover The Spread
Taylor Fritz produced a very Sinner-like spread cover on Friday against Tiafoe in the semis. He was a 4.5-game favorite. The match was dead even after four sets. Fritz needed to win the fifth set 6-1 to cover the 4.5-game spread. He did. This has been an incredible tournament from a betting perspective. Underdog bets that look like sure winners have improbably crumbled at the very end. Fritz, however, has been covering spreads consistently, and he has shown a Sinner-like knack for covering with a big finish to a match.
Final Jannik Sinner-Taylor Fritz Prediction & Pick
In our Fritz-Tiafoe semifinal preview, our betting analysis went like this:
“Fritz is the better player, but Tiafoe is getting 4.5 games instead of 2.5. You can hedge here and see if you can ‘middle' the match. Go with Tiafoe against the spread but Fritz over total games. If the match does go at least four sets, you could cash both tickets, not just one.”
We came within one Tiafoe game of cashing both tickets with that line of analysis. We think it's exactly the same way you should approach this one: Fritz to cover, Sinner over total games.
Final Jannik Sinner-Taylor Fritz Prediction & Pick: Fritz +5.5 games, Sinner over 20.5 games
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