Ranked 6th overall in the nation, John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats will take on Todd Golden’s Florida Gators. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Kentucky-Florida prediction and pick.

The young Wildcats will travel to Gainesville winners of four straight with a marquee victory over North Carolina on a neutral floor. After both missing the start of the season, seven-footers Aaron Bradshaw and Ugonna Onyenso gave the Cats the rebounding and rim protection they were missing. We knew the freshman would be good, but we did not expect Reed Sheppard to be the undoubtedly best freshman in the nation. The Cats are young and fun, you will not want to miss many Kentucky games from here on out.

Speaking of fun teams, Todd Golden has Florida playing their best basketball in years. With multiple ball handlers and multiple front-court options, the Gators are a dangerous squad entering conference play. Where Kentucky ranks 17th nationally in offensive tempo, Florida is even faster (10th). Do not blink if you tune in to this one, you might miss a possession or two. 

Florida has lost four straight against Kentucky, last winning in February of 2021 during COVID-19. Can the new-look Gators defend their home court to start conference play?

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Kentucky-Florida Odds

Kentucky: +1.5 (-120)

Moneyline: (-110)

Florida: -1.5 (-102)

Moneyline: (-110)

Over: 167.5 (-110)

Under: 167.5 (-110)

How to Watch Kentucky vs. Florida

Time: 12:30 pm ET/ 9:30 am PT

TV: ESPN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Kentucky Will Cover The Spread

Initially, the numbers in two categories scream off the page. The turnover battle and outside shooting should heavily favor Kentucky here. Offensively Kentucky virtually never turns the ball over, boasting a turnover rate of 12.6% which ranks 4th nationally. Contrarily, Florida’s defense only forces a turnover rate of 16.1% which ranks 273rd nationally. Looking at Kentucky defensively, the Cats' turnover rate ranks 107th (18.9%) while Florida’s offensive turnover rate is down at 194th (17.9%). In summary, Kentucky should be in a position to win the turnover battle by a decent margin. 

Additionally, the ShotQuality data suggests Kentucky should be in for plenty of open looks from long-range. Concerningly, Florida allows the second-most distance between defender and three-point shooter out of all power five teams. The only team that allows more distance is Louisville. This plays right into Kentucky’s strength as they rank 3rd nationally in three-point percentage at 41.6%. 

One of Kentucky’s weakest areas on paper is its rebounding. Specifically, offensive rebounding. The Cats rank 229th on the season in offensive rebounding rate (27.9%). But when you filter BartTorvik’s analytics to show data only from the past four games where both Bradshaw and Onyenso have played, they rank 67th (33.8%). With a difference that big, I predict Kentucky to have a possession or two extra than what they are predicted to have. 

Lastly, Florida's resume is starting to look weaker and weaker by the day. Their two best wins are over Pittsburgh and Michigan. Both of those teams have looked terrible lately, especially Michigan.

Why Florida Will Cover The Spread

It is important to understand with this Florida team that they have yet to be at full strength for any of their losses. Against Virginia, the Gators were without UC Riverside transfer Zyon Pullin who has quickly become the team's most valuable ball handler. In a game where Virginia has one of the best guard defenders in the nation in Reece Beekman. Moving on to the Baylor and Wake Forest losses, the Gators were without big man Micah Handlogten. You can argue this team is undefeated at full strength. 

Impressively, the Gators have won six straight without their most talented offensive weapon from last year going through a slump. A brutal slump that is. Riley Kugel, who shot 37.6% from three last year, has not made a three-pointer since December 5th. He is currently 0-18 from three in Florida’s last four games. To be able to win games over Richmond, East Carolina, and Michigan while Kugel is going through this rough stretch speaks volumes to the quality of Florida’s depth. 

Lastly, Kentucky has only played in one true road game through the first twelve games – at Louisville. It's not much of a road game if you ask me. You can argue that this is Kentucky’s first true road game of the season, or the first true hostile environment if you will. With Florida’s fall semester starting Monday, you best believe the students will be back and ready to rock. I know the Kentucky freshmen have been phenomenal, but this will be their first game playing in front of an opposing student section. 

Final Kentucky-Florida Prediction & Pick

It is important during the start of conference play to stay true to your bankroll management. Around these times we tend to see a variety of wacky results. Teams playing way above or below their analytical footprint would suggest. Make sure you are betting responsibly for this is college basketball, anything can happen. 

With that being said, I truly believe the full-season rebounding numbers are off in this one. The computers are suggesting a sizeable rebounding advantage for Florida and I disagree with the computers. This is a Kentucky team that held Armando Bacot to only six rebounds in 31 minutes. I think the combination of Kentucky’s ability to shoot the outside shot with the rebounding numbers being wrongly portrayed and I see value in the Cats. Give me Kentucky on the road to start conference play.

Final Kentucky-Florida Prediction & Pick: Kentucky ML (-110)