Ole Miss aims to keep its momentum going when it hosts Kentucky in Week 5 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Kentucky-Ole Miss prediction and pick.
The Rebels are still unbeaten after yet another convincing win in Week 4, where they scored a 52-13 victory against Georgia Southern. Lane Kiffin's team – ranked No. 6 in the Associated Press top-25 poll – certainly look the part of both an SEC and national title contender thus far.
As for the Wildcats, they regained some confidence in a 41-6 win over Ohio. The Wildcats were much better on offense with a season-high 488 total yards, and that trend must continue to have an opportunity to pull a huge road upset in SEC play.
Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Kentucky-Ole Miss Odds
Kentucky: +17.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +580
Ole Miss: -17.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -880
Over: 53.5 (-110)
Under: 53.5 (-110)
How to Watch Kentucky vs. Ole Miss
Time: 12 p.m. ET/ 9 a.m. PT
TV: ABC
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why Kentucky Could Cover The Spread/Win
That Ohio win was huge for quarterback Brock Vandagriff, who completed 17-of-24 throws for 237 yards.
That stat line may not jump out at anyone, but let's think about the two games prior. The Georgia transfer went 14-of-27 for 114 yards and was sacked three times in the loss to his former team in Week 3, and the game before that, he was just 3-of-10 for 30 yards and an interception – in addition to being sacked four times – before being pulled in the blowout 31-6 loss at the hands of South Carolina.
Anything would've felt like an improvement after those two performances, but he clearly gained some confidence in leading his team to a convincing win. The question is, can he carry that over into an efficient outing against one of the nation's top defenses? If he can, that would go a long way toward Kentucky covering the spread.
Even if he can't – but the offense finds a way to limit mistakes – the defense can put the Wildcats in business in this spot. They held Georgia to 262 total yards in the near upset in Lexington a few weeks ago, and defensive coordinator Brad White has a unit posting some impressive numbers entering this matchup. Kentucky is sixth nationally in yards per game allowed (217.0), sixth in completions per game allowed (11.8), 12th in rushing yards per game allowed (74.8), 19th in yards per rush allowed (2.7), 20th in scoring defense (12.5 PPG), and 21st in passing yards per game allowed (142.2).
Against a juggernaut offense like Ole Miss, defense is everything. Luckily, the Wildcats have an experienced group with something to prove.
Why Ole Miss Could Cover The Spread/Win
This is Kiffin's most talented squad he's had since taking the job in 2019.
And while an offense led by Heisman Trophy contender Jaxson Dart (95-of-119, 79.8% completion, 1,554 YDs, 12 TDs), playmaking running back Henry Parrish Jr. (57 CARs, 427 YDs, 7 TDs,) and stud wide receiver Tre Harris (38 RECs, 628 YDs, 4 TDs) will get most of the headlines, it's the defense that could be what fuels Ole Miss to a College Football Playoff appearance this season.
The one area it could dominate in this matchup? You guessed it: Sacks. Lots and lots of sacks.
As mentioned, that has been a glaring weakness for Kentucky this season, and Vandagriff may have deja vu from the South Carolina game if the Rebels do their thing up front. Ole Miss has racked up 13 sacks through four games, which is tied for 10 nationally. Perhaps the most impressive part of that number is that 11 different players have contributed to that total.
Yes, the Wildcats were able to protect Vandagriff against Ohio, but this is a much different challenge against a defense that has been so dominant.
Ole Miss could be salivating at the potential opportunities to add to that already outstanding sack number this season.
Final Kentucky-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick
The series history suggests this will be close, as the last three meetings between these two teams have been decided by three points or fewer.
However, the difference this time around is that there's an argument to be made for Ole Miss as the best team in college football.
No, Kiffin's group hasn't played the toughest schedule, but they have been so impressive that it shouldn't matter. This is Kentucky's first game outside of Lexington this season, and the Rebels could wreak havoc defensively against what has been a lackluster offense for the Wildcats.
That should allow Ole Miss to cover the spread with another convincing victory.
Final Kentucky-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick: Ole Miss -17.5 (-105)