The New York Knicks were formidable in 2023-24, especially at Madison Square Garden. But there is always room for improvement. And winning a bigger chunk of home games is usually the lowest hanging fruit, even for a team that plays in an arena that brings out the best in opponents. So, if New York hopes to improve next season, the question becomes: can the Knicks claw back a few more wins at home?
Objectively, the Knicks were pretty good last season at Madison Square Garden. They went 27-14 at home with an aggregate +242 plus/minus on their home floor.
But pretty good isn't good enough. The NBA Champion Boston Celtics went 37-4 at home last season and were a +623 in aggregate in TD Garden. So, New York must be even better.
Technically, the Knicks were tied with the Houston Rockets for the seventh-best winning percentage at home last season. And three teams that finished with worse records than New York secured more wins at home: the Milwaukee Bucks, Orlando Magic, and Los Angeles Lakers. So, there is clearly room for improvement.
History suggests that the Knicks must be better at home
Why must New York be better at home? It begins with their preference to win a championship and a look back at recent NBA champions. You'd have to go all the way back to the 1994-95 season to find the most recent NBA champion that suffered 14 or more home losses (Houston Rockets). It’s been 30 years since that’s happened. 30.
Further, only two NBA champions in the past 20 seasons have suffered more than 10 home losses: the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors (12) and the 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (12). Conversely, seven champions lost five or fewer home games: the 2004-05 San Antonio Spurs (38-3), 2008-09 Los Angeles Lakers (36-5), 2011-12 Miami Heat (28-5), 2012-13 Miami Heat (37-4), 2013-14 Golden State Warriors (39-2), 2016-17 Golden State Warriors (36-5), and 2023-24 Boston Celtics (37-4).
So, the goal should be 10 or fewer home losses.
How can the Knicks improve at Madison Square Garden?
Beyond Knicks roster improvements, which will probably (but not definitely) improve the team's home record, there is one key thing that could swing in the Knicks favor — injuries. Put differently, a lack of injuries can swing the Knicks' home record considerably. And we're not talking about a minor improvement.
How can New York's health play such a major role? The answer rests squarely in the period from January 27 through April 4 of last season. New York went 9-9 at home in that span, and much of the lack of success was due to injuries to OG Anunoby, Julius Randle, and Mitchell Robinson. Granted, injuries happen. But losing three starters simultaneously is incredibly uncommon, and it is highly unlikely to happen again.
What would have been had New York been healthier? Well, if you ignore those 18 games, the Knicks were 18-5 at home. That translates to a winning percentage of 78%. If the Knicks won just two-thirds of those home games (instead of 50%), they would have been 30-11. If they'd won 78% of their entire 41 home games, they would have been 32-9. Both of those records would be within the range of recent NBA champions.
So, if New York remains healthy (or healthier than they were last season), they should improve on their home record for 2024-25.
The Knicks will have to succeed on the biggest stage in the NBA, Madison Square Garden. Of course, they must address their lack of depth at center. And they'll have to deal with the increased pressure and attention that goes along with entering the contender conversation.
Still, the Knicks enter 2024-25 in better shape than they entered (or exited) last season, and that should translate to strong play at home. So, while teams historically bring their A-games to the Garden, the Knicks' home court advantage should be stronger this season than it's been in some time. And that should translate to improvement.
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