The time is finally here and UFC 304 from Manchester, England will conclude with the bout everyone's been waiting for. We're bringing you a betting prediction and pick for this headlining bout as the Welterweight (170) title will be on the line. Champion and home country hero Leon Edwards will defend his belt against No. 2 contender Belal Muhammad. Check out our UFC odds series for our Edwards-Muhammad prediction and pick.
Leon Edwards (22-3) has gone 14-2-0-1 during his journey to become UFC Champion. He's on a 12-fight unbeaten streak and most recently conquered Kamaru Usman twice to capture and defend the Welterweight strap. He'll now rematch Belal Muhammad after a 2021 bout that infamously ended in a brutal eye poke. The Champion stands 6'0″ with a 74-inch reach.
Belal Muhammad (23-3) has gone 14-3-0-1 en route to his first title shot in the UFC. He's also riding an impressive winning streak at nine fights and his only blemish was the ‘No Contest' against the champion in 2021. Still, Muhammad has been waiting for this moment and he'll finally prove his title aspirations have been undeniable. The Challenger stands 5'11” with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 304 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC 304 Odds: Leon Edwards-Belal Muhammad Odds
Leon Edwards: -250
Belal Muhammad: +210
Over 4.5 rounds: -200
Under 4.5 rounds: +160
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Why Leon Edwards Will Win
Leon Edwards put together a masterful performance in his first title defense and third fight against Kamaru Usman, proving to everyone his first championship victory wasn't a fluke. He proved himself as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet and he could be the most complete striker on the UFC's roster today. Since winning his title, his skills have only improved and his confidence has taken a massive leap forward. He also has the confidence knowing his first fight against Muhammad was completely going his way before the inadvertent eye poke.
To be successful here, Edwards will have to stay on top of his game in terms of stuffing takedowns and remain sharp with his striking. Belal Muhammad is hungrier than ever to get this title shot and will look for any ounce of quit from the champion, to which Edwards can't relinquish himself in the slightest. Leon Edwards will look to keep this fight on the feet where he knows he can win. He also has one of the best takedown defenses in the division and notably flipped the switch on Kamaru Usman in the wrestling – don't be surprised if he can pull of something similar in this one.
Why Belal Muhammad Will Win
Belal Muhammad has been a man on a mission over the last few years and ever since his last fight with Leon Edwards was cut short due to an eye poke, he's been hell-bent on returning to this stage and exacting his revenge. After being passed-up on a title shot for a number of times, Muhammad became undeniable with his most recent win over dangerous contender Sean Brady and eventually Gilbert Burns. His rare combination of relentless wrestling and power striking has made him an impossible puzzle to solve for other top flight contenders. Now, he has the chance to bring his style against a world-class striker and prove his grit will earn him a title.
Belal Muhammad fully believes he was able to take Edwards' best shots in the first fight and still remain competitive. He believes the champion will eventually break under his pressure and he fully intends on dragging Edwards into the deeper rounds of the fight. Muhammad also has a very strong team behind him and they've done everything in their power to prepare him for this moment. Look for his motor to be through the roof as he tries to break the champion's spirits.
Final Leon Edwards-Belal Muhammad Prediction & Pick
This is a highly anticipated matchup and we'll finally get to see these two fighters rematch on the biggest stage possible. Leon Edwards is the rightful favorite here as the champion and if this fight begins like their last meeting did, Edwards will be poised to cruise to a five-round decision.
However, Belal Muhammad may be the hungriest man in the UFC and he's been starved of this title shot for long enough. He fully believes in his capabilities and he's confident in the work he's put in throughout his training camp. Leon Edwards may be the more talented fighter, but it's hard to see anyone working harder than Muhammad in training for this fight.
For the final prediction, I believe Leon Edwards will be taking Belal Muhammad too lightly ahead of this fight. While Edwards is the best striker in the division and arguably the UFC, we've seen him fold mentally in certain spots and Muhammad is fully aware. He'll be doing everything to break Edwards with his wrestling and ground-and-pound, to which I believe he secures a decision victory. This fight still leans towards Leon Edwards, but we'll take a shot on the hungry underdog here.
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Final Leon Edwards-Belal Muhammad Prediction & Pick: Belal Muhammad (+210)
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