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The Toronto Maple Leafs will battle the Detroit Red Wings on Friday. It's an Original 6 battle at Little Caesars Arena as we share our NHL odds series and make a Maple Leafs-Red Wings prediction and pick.
The Maple Leafs are 38-29 over their past 67 games. Recently, the Wings defeated the Leafs 4-2 on December 15, 2024. Before that, the Maple Leafs defeated the Red Wings 3-1 in Toronto on November 9, 2024. They have split the last 10 games. Yet, the Leafs are 3-2 in the past five games in Detroit.
Here are the Maple Leafs-Red Wings NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NHL Odds: Maple Leafs-Red Wings Odds
Toronto Maple Leafs: -1.5 (+160)
Moneyline: -152
Detroit Red Wings: +1.5 (-200)
Moneyline: +126
Over: 5.5 (-140)
Under: 5.5 (+114)
How To Watch Maple Leafs vs Red Wings
Time: 7 PM ET/4 PM PT
TV: FDSD and ESPN+
*Watch NHL games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Maple Leafs Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Maple Leafs remain one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Yet, it has not been easy for them as they have dealt with numerous injuries, including one to their best player.
After missing nine games in November, Auston Matthews reaggravated his injury and missed another game this past week. It's unfortunate because Matthews is the glue that holds the offense together. Overall, he has netted 11 goals and 12 assists over 24 games. Additionally, he has been excellent in the faceoff circle, winning 256 draws and losing 203.
Mitchell Marner has had to pick things up this season and has done a good job. So far, he has 10 goals and 36 assists, including four powerplay markers. William Nylander has also done well, potting 23 goals and 17 assists, including seven powerplay tallies. Also, he has had some faceoff chances with Matthews out, winning 48 draws and losing 51. John Tavares has bounced between the first and second lines, scoring 17 goals and 17 assists, including five powerplay conversions. Also, he has been a master in the faceoff circle, winning 335 draws and losing 258.
The offense is 12th in goals and 18th in assists. Additionally, they are 15th in shooting percentage. The Leafs are also only 18th on the powerplay.
Joseph Woll will be the goalie in net and comes in with a record of 9-6 with a 2.61 goals-against average and a save percentage of .908. He will play behind a defense that ranks 13th in goals against and seventh on the penalty kill.
The Maple Leafs will cover the spread if they can set up some shooting lanes and put some pucks in the net. Then, they must avoid making some mistakes in their zone.
Why the Red Wings Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Red Wings are struggling, and Dylan Larkin is frustrated by the struggles and being booed off the ice. After dominating the NHL for decades with a ridiculous playoff streak, the Red Wings have struggled over the last decade, unable to make the playoffs. Additionally, it does not look like it will happen this season. But the Wings have beaten the Leafs, overcoming them just two weeks ago.
In that game, the Wings grabbed the lead first and then held the Leafs to two goals. However, one significant thing in that game was their ability to win faceoffs, taking 51 percent of the draws. While they did not convert on any of their powerplay chances, whiffing on all three, it did not matter as the Wings did just enough to beat the Leafs and cover the spread at home.
Lucas Raymond is the leading scorer, tallying 13 goals and 20 assists, including one powerplay conversion. Meanwhile, Larkin has 12 goals and 14 assists, including six powerplay tallies. Larkin has also been great in the faceoff circle, winning 386 draws and losing 297. Also, Alex DeBrincat has tallied 13 goals and 12 assists, including six powerplay markers.
Alex Lyon and Cal Talbot have shared the net and it has not been pretty. Lyon is 5-5 with a 3.09 goals-against average and a save percentage of .894, while Talbot is 6-8-2 with a 2.79 goals-against average and a save percentage of .894.
The Red Wings will cover the spread if they can win the loose puck battles and keep the Leafs off the power play. Then, they must defend the net and prevent the Leafs from having good shooting lanes.
Final Maple Leafs-Red Wings Prediction & Pick
The Maple Leafs are 19-16 against the spread, while the Red Wings are 19-15 against the odds. Moreover, the Leafs are 8-7 against the spread on the road, while the Wings are 8-8 against the odds at home. The Maple Leafs are 15-17-3 against the over/under, while the Red Wings are 14-19-1 against the over/under.
I think the Leafs can win this game. However, it will be a struggle without Matthews, and I believe the Wings will cover the spread at home again.
Final Maple Leafs-Red Wings Prediction & Pick: Red Wings +1.5 (-200)
