The final game of March Madness is here and what better way to make a few extra bucks than hitting some prop bets? Player prop bets are abundant for this big game. It's time to continue our March Madness odd series with some of the best NCAA Finals prop bet picks and predictions.
Here are the latest March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
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NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under Adama Sanogo 16.5 Points
In the tournament thus far only one team has held Sanogo under this total, and that was Gonzaga. In that game, Sanogo shot 27.3% from the floor and struggled to get going. Gonzaga hounded him all over the court, and that opened up the game for Hawkins and others to take over. This may be a similar game. San Diego State has a swarming defense and a tempo that wants to keep scoring opportunities low. Still, UCONN has shown complete dominance in the tournament, and Sanogo has been a big part of that. Don't expect him to nail two early threes in this one, but he should still be the main focus of this offense. Unless he gets into foul trouble, he will clear this.
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under Adama Sanogo 16.5 Points Prediction: 18 points
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under Adama Sanogo 16.5 Points Pick: Over 16.5 Points (+100)
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under Matt Bradley 12.5 Points
Bradley is the leader in points on the season for the Aztecs but has been hit-or-miss in the tournament. In the five games so far, he is averaging 11.2 points per game. One of the games was a 21-point outing, and one was a two-point affair against FAU. Overall, San Diego State likes to spread the ball around and find the most efficient shot, regardless of who takes it. Against another top-quality defense in Alabama, Bradley went 22.2% from the field for only six points but was limited by foul trouble. Foul trouble may not be an issue tonight, but facing UCONN will be.
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under Matt Bradley 12.5 Points Prediction: 10 points
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under Matt Bradley 12.5 Points Pick: Under 12.5 Points (-120)
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under Tristen Newton 4.5 Assists
Tristen Newton has hit over 4.5 assists in all but one game so far in the tournament. That was a one-assist outing against Gonzaga. This prop bet is interesting, because all trends suggest the over will hit, but San Diego State's defense suggests going with the under. UCONN focuses on effective field goal percentage, and if the main part of the UCONN offense is Newton passing the ball, that will be the main focus for this San Diego State defense. Beating San Diego State requires the extra pass to be made. They crash the primary scorer well, and he will need to dish the ball. This will lower Newton's assists total but may raise his points total in this one.
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under Tristen Newton 4.5 Assists Prediction: 4 Assists
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under Tristen Newton 4.5 Assists Pick: Under 4.5 Assists (+102)
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under Adama Sanogo 8.5 Rebounds
This prop could use some line shopping. Some places have this at 7.5 rebounds, while others are at 8.5 rebounds. Depending on the odds you are looking for and where you stand, you could shop around to get value. San Diego State has been good at keeping the rebounding advantage close. They have done this by shutting down primary rebounders for the other team and limiting them below their season average. While they have lost the battle at times, it has been secondary rebounders picking up the slack. Sanogo is a primary guy and will be doubled as much as possible on the glass. His opportunities will be limited by an efficient shooting offense on both sides and a slow pace of play.
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under Adama Sanogo 8.5 Rebounds Prediction: 7 Rebounds
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under Adama Sanago 8.5 Rebounds Pick: Under 8.5 Rebounds (-152)
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under Andre Jackson Jr. 18.5 PRA
PRA is points + assists + rebounds. If Andre Jackson has a great game in any one of these categories, he could have a monster outing in this statistic. As noted, San Diego State will have to shut down primary scorers Hawkins and Sanogo to keep up in this game. They will also try to crash the boards hard, leaving long-range rebound opportunities that the guard can take advantage of. Jackson will also benefit tonight in scoring. As the extra pass is made, Jackson is going to get opportunities to score. The Aztecs may slow him down on the glass, but the assists numbers and points should get him in range. He has his this number in all but one game so far in the tournament, and that was against Miami.
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under Andre Jackson Jr 18.5 PRA Prediction: 21 PRA
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under Andre Jackson Jr 18.5 PRA Pick: Over 18.5 PRA (-102)
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under UCONN 72.5 Team Points
UCONN just scored their lowest output of the tournament against Miami, scoring only 72. They are one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation, and great at shooting the three. San Diego State has not allowed over 71 points yet this tournament. FAU hit that total in the last game, and the Aztecs held Alabama to 64 points. Something has to give in this game, and it will be the San Diego State defense. UCONN has been rolling over teams, and that continues tonight. To go under, UCONN would have to be at its worst. This is the big stage, and UCONN continues its dominance tonight. This is an alternative line play, currently listed as Connecticut Alternate Total Points Four.
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under UCONN 72.5 Team Points Prediction: 75 Points
NCAA Finals Prop: Over/Under UCONN 72.5 Team Points Pick: Over 72.5 Points (+144)
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