The first game for the West Region on Friday sends 12-seeded VCU to Albany, New York to face the five-seed in Saint Mary’s. It is time to continue our March Madness odds series with a VCU-Saint Mary’s prediction and pick.
Former cinderella story VCU attempts to become the latest winner of a 12-5 upset in the tournament. VCU comes in with a top-rated defense, that allows some of the least amount of points in the nation. However, for as good as the VCU defense is, the Saint Mary’s defense may be better. This will be a solid defensive battle as VCU aims to upset the Gaels.
Here are the VCU-Saint Mary's March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: VCU-Saint Mary's Odds
VCU: +4.5 (-115)
Saint Mary's: -4.5 (-105)
Over: 122.5 (-110)
Under: 122.5 (-110)
How To Watch VCU vs. Saint Mary's
TV: TBS
Stream: NCAA March Madness App
Time: 2:00 PM ET/ 11:00 AM PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why VCU Could Cover The Spread
VCU may not be putting out an elite offense, as they rank 185th in points per game with only 71.4 points per outing. That also makes them the 138th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency team in the nation. They struggle to hit from the three-point line, as they are over 300th in the nation in three-pointers made per game. They also are 227th in assist-to-turnover ratio, with five more turnovers than assists on the season. The is led by Adrian Baldwin Jr. and his 12.7 points per game, but that only places him 19th in the A-10. He is a much better assist guy, sitting second in the conference with 5.9 assists per game. If Baldwin had a primary scorer to drop the ball too, it is possible those assist numbers would go up, but for now, he has to carry the scoring load here as well.
If the offense struggles so badly, it begs the question, how did VCU get here? Defense is the answer there. VCU is the 16th adjusted efficiency-rated defense according to KenPom. Their .830 points per possession on defense rank them top ten in the nation. They are 24th in the nation on scoring defense, and while they may not hit many three-pointers, their three-point concession is lower at 6.0 per game. They sit 93rd in defensive three-point percentage as well.
Ace Baldwin does more than just lead his team on offense. Baldwin was named A-10 defensive player of the year and became the 4th player in conference history to win the overall player of the year award and the defensive player of the year. He led the VCU defense that ranked fifth in the nation in turnover percentage. If Baldwin can help create havoc, there could be a 12 seed pulling an upset here.
Why Saint Mary's Could Cover The Spread
Saint Mary’s outscored their opponents by 11.3 points per game, and this is all while only scoring 71.4 points per game. That offensive output is 185th in the nation overall, but they are an efficient offensive team. They are top 40 in the nation in points per possession, averaging 1.001 points per possession on the season. That quality offensive efficiency has KenPom ranking them 39th in adjusted offensive efficiency overall. Their 1.18 assist-to-turnover ratio is an efficient 86th in the nation and the theme continues to be ranked 87th in the nation in effective field goal percentage.
There are no fireworks from the Saint Mary’s offense, but their defense is the star of the show. For as good as VCU is on defense, Saint Mary’s is better. The Gaels have an adjusted defensive efficiency of ninth. They are fifth in defensive points allowed on the season, only allowing 60.1 points per game. Meanwhile, they only allow 5.3 three-pointers per game and give up .843 points per possession, which is a top-25 marker.
Three players from this Saint Mary’s squad made the All WCC First Team, with Logan Johnson, Aidan Mahaney, and Mitchell Saxen. Logan Johnson was the defensive player of the year for the conference and will show off his defensive prowess with another DPOY on the other side of the court. The team is well coached, and execute well, led by the WCC Coach of the year in Randy Bennett.
Final VCU-Saint Mary's Prediction & Pick
This is a situation where two teams meet, and are trying to do the same thing. Both want to play solid defense, and efficient offense and limit the other team. Both of them have great coaches and have a defensive player of the year. VCU should be a popular upset pick, as two defensive teams will play a very tight game.
Final VCU-Saint Mary's Prediction & Pick: Under 122.5 (-110)
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