The Seattle Mariners will continue their three-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday at PNC Park. Both teams are trying to make the playoffs as we share our MLB odds series and make a Mariners-Pirates prediction and pick.
Mariners-Pirates Projected Starters
Luis Castillo vs. Bailey Farber
Luis Castillo (10-11) with a 3.40 ERA
Last Start: Castillo dominated in his last outing, going six innings, allowing one earned run, four hits, striking out nine, and walking two in a win over the New York Mets.
2024 Road Splits: Castillo has been worse on the road, going 4-6 with a 4.14 ERA over 11 starts away from T-Mobile Park.
Bailey Farber (5-7) with a 4.07 ERA
Last Start: Farber struggled in his last outing, going just four innings, allowing four earned runs on seven hits, striking out only two, and walking three in a no-decision against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
2024 Home Splits: Falter has been better at home, going 2-3 with a 3.66 ERA over nine starts at PNC Park.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mariners-Pirates Odds
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+100)
Moneyline: -164
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-120)
Moneyline: +138
Over: 8.5 (-102)
Under: 8.5 (-120)
How to Watch Mariners vs. Pirates
Time: 1:05 PM ET/10:05 AM PT
TV: MLB Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Mariners Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mariners led the American League West for the first few months but have seen things fall apart. Unfortunately, injuries and struggles to hit the baseball have hurt them and caused their slide. It has been worse because one of their top players has struggled to stay healthy.
Julio Rodriguez recently returned from a high-ankle sprain but has not been consistently healthy or productive. While he still leads the team in hits, he has not been able to demonstrate much power. Randy Arozarena is the new guy in town and is hoping to give the Mariners a lift. Ultimately, he was batting just .273 with one home run, five RBIs, and 14 runs over 17 games with the M's since coming over in a trade.
Justin Turner also came to the Mariners in a trade and has already made an impact, including a game where he clobbered a grand slam. Now, he hopes to continue battering the baseball. Cal Raleigh is a powerhouse in this lineup, as he is currently hitting .214 with 26 home runs, 76 RBIs, and 52 runs. Therefore, expect him to remain a power threat.
Castillo has been solid all season but has struggled with run support, which is a major reason for his losing record. When Castillo finishes, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 13th in baseball in team ERA. Andres Munoz is the closer, coming into Friday with a record of 2-4 with a 1.35 ERA and 18 saves in 22 chances.
The Mariners will cover the spread if their lineup can continue driving in runs and setting up large-scoring innings. Then, they need Castillo to maintain his stuff and find the strike zone.
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Pirates are outside the playoff race, and they do not look like they are going to contend. Significantly, they came into Friday trailing the final wildcard spot by 7 1/2 games and are looking more and more at 2025 with every passing day. Their hitters must do more to try and get something going.
Bryan Reynolds is the best hitter on this team, as he came into the weekend leading the team in home runs, RBIs, and hits. Substantially, his ability to batter the baseball makes him a formidable opponent for any pitcher. Bryan De La Cruz is the newest player in town. However, he has struggled since joining the Pirates, batting just .196 with only one RBI and four runs over 11 games with the team. Oneil Cruz is one of the consistent batters in the lineup. So far, he is hitting .261 with 18 home runs, 59 RBIs, and 54 runs. Connor Joe is also solid and will look to continue being productive.
Falter has not done well but will get a golden opportunity against a bad offense. Thus, this is a chance to set things right. When Falter exits the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is just 24th in baseball in team ERA. Sadly, the Pirates have not had much luck closing out games, with David Bednar being 3-5 with a 5.75 ERA with 20 saves in 25 chances and Aroldis Chapman registering a 4-4 record with a 3.43 ERA and four saves in eight chances.
The Pirates will cover the spread if their bats can spark them to an early lead. Then, they need a good outing from Falter.
Final Mariners-Pirates Prediction & Pick
The Mariners came into the weekend with a run-line record of 51-71, which was the worst mark in the majors, while the Pirates came in with a mark of 66-54. Furthermore, the M's were just 25-34 against the run line on the road, while the Pirates were 29-29 at home against the run line. Because of those marks, it is incredibly difficult to trust the Mariners, even with Castillo. The Mariners are also 9-16 against the run line whenever Castillo starts. Therefore, expect more of the same, with the Pirates covering at home.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Mariners-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-120)
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