The Miami Marlins are on the road to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates Monday night. Check out our MLB odds series as we hand out a Marlins-Pirates prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Marlins-Pirates Projected Starters
Valente Bellozo vs. Paul Skenes
Valente Bellozo (2-2) with a 3.78 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 47.2 innings pitched, 33K/17BB, .242 oBA
Last Start: vs. Washington Nationals: No Decision, 6 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 1 strikeout
2024 Road Splits: 5 starts, 3.42 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 26.1 innings pitched, 19K/7BB, .227 oBA
Paul Skenes (9-2) with a 2.13 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 114 innings pitched, 142K/30BB, .201 oBA
Last Start: at Chicago Cubs: Win, 5 innings, 4 hits, 0 runs, 4 walks, 6 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 11 starts, 2.60 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 65.2 innings pitched, 74K/17BB, .221 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Pirates Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (+106)
Moneyline: +215
Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 (-128)
Moneyline: -260
Over: 7.5 (-122)
Under: 7.5 (+100)
How to Watch Marlins vs. Pirates
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Sun, Sportsnet Pittsburgh
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
Miami has an extremely tough matchup in this game in Skenes. That is why Bellozo has to have one of his good games. The good news is Bellozo is a better pitcher on the road. He has a better ERA, he strikes out more batters, and opponents have a tougher time hitting the ball. He has great road starts against the Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, and Atlanta Braves, so he has played good teams. If Bellozo can have another good road start against a weaker lineup, the Marlins might be able to beat Paul Skenes.
The Pirates are not a great offensive team. They are in the bottom 10 in the MLB in batting average and slugging percentage. Along with that, Pittsburgh strikes out a lot. Bellozo may not strike out a lot of batters, but he should be able to induce weaker contact against the Pirates. Doing so will help home go deeper into the game and give the Marlins a chance to win.
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
Paul Skenes is not only a front runner for National League Rookie of the Year, but he is in the Cy Young race, as well. Skenes is one of the best pitchers in the MLB, and he gives the Pirates a chance to win anytime he takes the mound. There is no reason to believe Skenes will not continue being dominant in this game. With him on the mound, the Pirates are the easy favorite.
Pick a category and Skenes is probably at the top of the leaderboard. He has a high chase rate, and a low average exit velocity, which is where he will thrive in this game. The Marlins will chase pitches off the plate as they lead the league in chase rate. Miami is also at the bottom of the league in whiff percentage. With Skenes on the bump, I would not be surprised to see the Marlins strike out a lot. If Skenes just continues to pitch his game, the Pirates will win with ease.
Final Marlins-Pirates Prediction & Pick
This is not a game to overthink. Paul Skenes is on the mound against a weak team, and that is who you should bet on. He is the better pitcher, and he should be able to go six or seven strong innings. I will take the Pirates to cover the spread Monday night.
Final Marlins-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Pirates -1.5 (-128)
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