The Miami Marlins will continue their three-game series with the New York Mets on Saturday at Citi Field. It's a National League East showdown as we share our MLB odds series and make a Marlins-Mets prediction and pick.
Marlins-Mets Projected Starters
Max Meyer vs. Luis Severino
Max Meyer (3-2) with a 5.20 ERA
Last Start: Meyer labored in his last outing, but still survived, going 6 1/3 innings, allowing four earned runs, seven hits, and striking out four in a win over the San Diego Padres.
2024 Road Splits: Meyer has done slightly better on the road, going 1-1 with a 4.80 ERA over three starts on the road.
Luis Severino (7-6) with a 4.17 ERA
Last Start: Severino struggled in his last start, going five innings, allowing four earned runs, six hits, striking out eight, and walking two in a loss to the Seattle Mariners.
2024 Home Splits: Severino has been good at home, going 4-2 with a 3.54 ERA over 12 starts at Citi Field.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Mets Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-132)
Moneyline: +166
New York Mets: -1.5 (+110)
Moneyline: -198
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
How to Watch Marlins vs. Mets
Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10 PM PT
TV: Sportsnet New York
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Marlins have been one of the worst teams in the majors, and there is no hope for the rest of the season. Yet, they can still play spoiler. The Marlins have a chance to make a dent in the Mets' playoff hopes. Therefore, there are some hitters who can make an impact.
Xavier Edwards has been a speed threat for the Marlins. Amazingly, he came into the weekend with seven stolen bases in seven days and 10 in 14. If Edwards can get on base, he can give the Marlins someone who can make Severino think twice. Meanwhile, Jake Burger has been cooking at the plate recently. Burger came into the weekend batting .458 with four home runs and five RBIs over a seven-day stretch. Thus, expect him to try and stay hot at the plate.
Meyer hopes to make good pitches as he faces a solid lineup. Substantially, he must avoid making mistakes down the heart of the plate. When Meyer exits, they will turn it over to a bullpen that is 15th in baseball in team ERA. Tanner Scott has been elite, going 6-5 with a 1.18 ERA and 18 saves in 20 chances.
The Marlins will cover the spread if Edwards can get on base and swipe some more bags while Burger drives him in. Then, they need a good outing from Meyer.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets are hanging around the playoff race. Ultimately, they came into the weekend trailing the San Diego Padres by two games for the final wildcard spot in the NL. New York looks to implement some hitting, and take advantage of a weaker opponent. Significantly, they have the hitters to do that.
Pete Alonso helped the Mets set a record last week and has continued to smash the baseball with nothing stopping him. Ultimately, he was batting .286 with three home runs and eight RBIs over a seven-day stretch and currently has 26 long balls this season. Francisco Lindor has also been hot at the plate. He was hitting .400 with one home run and three RBIs over a seven-day stretch. Meanwhile, Brandon Nimmo and JD Martinez have also been clobbering the baseball, with both contributing to the hot stretch.
Severino has dominated the Marlins, going 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA over four starts in his career against the divisional rival. Significantly, his stuff has fooled the Marlins throughout his career. When Severino finishes, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 17th in baseball. Edwin Diaz has struggled as the closer, going 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 14 saves in 19 chances. Therefore, the Mets need him to do better to have a chance.
The Mets will cover the spread if Alonso and Lindor can sustain their hot streaks at the plate with Nimmo and Martinez contributing. Then, they need a good start from Severino.
Final Marlins-Mets Prediction & Pick
The Marlins came into the weekend just 57-64 against the run line, while the Mets were 59-62. Moreover, the Marlins were 29-29 against the run line on the road, while the Mets were 28-33 against the run line at home. But the Mets are also just 29-39 against the run line as the favorite and 16-25 at home. Notably, the Mets came into the weekend just 5-5 against the Marlins, including 2-1 at home. But the Marlins are 7-3 against the run line. Somehow, we expect them to cover the spread again.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Marlins-Mets Prediction & Pick: Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-132)
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