The Miami Marlins take on the San Diego Padres. Check out our MLB odds series for our Marlins Padres prediction and pick. Find how to watch Marlins Padres.

The San Diego Padres are a .500 team on Memorial Day, which is well below the standard this team expected of itself this season. The Padres have a lot of talent and, crucially, the high-end pitching which should make them a contender in the National League. They have Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish, and they have Robert Suarez, one of the better closers in baseball. They can supplement that pitching with Luis Arraez, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, Ha-Seong Kim, and some exciting young players. There really are a lot of pieces this team should be able to translate into a steady stream of wins.

We saw what this team is capable of last week, when San Diego won three out of four in Atlanta against the Braves and then won a series in Cincinnati versus the Reds. A 5-2 road swing featured the Padres at their best. Yet, they're only 28-28 through 56 games. They're more than one-third of the way through their season, and they aren't a winning ballclub.

Yet, the Padres are lucky. Why? It's simple: The National League isn't very good right now. Only four teams are better than one game over .500. The Padres are part of a very big jumble of teams near the break-even mark. That jumble of teams is fighting for the second and third National League wild card spots. This is all reminiscent of 2023. Only 84 wins was enough for the Arizona Diamondbacks to make the National League playoffs and then make an October run to the World Series. The 2023 Padres won only 82 games. This team has four months left in which to win a wild card spot, and because the competition hasn't pulled away, the Padres frankly have as good a chance as anyone to get that fifth or sixth seed in the National League postseason bracket. They are lucky, but now they need to start winning and take advantage of that luck. Otherwise, they will regret yet another wasted season and another batch of wasted talent.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Marlins-Padres MLB odds.

MLB Odds: Marlins-Padres Odds

Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-150)

San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+125)

Over: 7.5 (-122)

Under: 7.5 (+100)

How To Watch Marlins vs. Padres

TV: Bally Sports Sun (Marlins) / MLB (Padres) / MLB Extra Innings

Stream: MLB.tv

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET/3:40 p.m. PT

*Watch Marlins-Padres LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why The Marlins Could Cover the Spread

The Marlins are actually playing good baseball right now. They have won seven of their last 10 games. They are getting great pitching. After a 1-0 shutout win over the Milwaukee Brewers (one of the few good teams in the National League) last Wednesday, the Marlins went to Phoenix and shut down the defending National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks over the weekend. Arizona scored a total of four runs in three games. The Marlins won two of three. Every starter they send to the mound is doing the job.

The other reason to pick the Marlins here is that the Padres are a bad team at home in 2024. Through 29 home games, the Padres are 11-18. They are 17-10 on the road. It's inexplicable, but it's true. San Diego struggles at Petco Park.

Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread

After beating the Yankees on Sunday, the Padres should be newly confident heading into this game. Their 11-18 home record feels like something which is bound to even out over the course of the season. Surely the Padres will be a .500 team or better at home over the course of an 81-game home-field schedule. This team is way too good to keep losing at home, especially to teams such as the Marlins.

Final Marlins-Padres Prediction & Pick

The Padres are a notoriously tough team to bet on, precisely because of their crazy home-road splits, but at home versus the Marlins, this is a good spot to get plus money on the Padre run line. Take San Diego.

Final Marlins-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5