UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya will be live from Perth, Australia as we bring you coverage of all the Main Card action. We're set to make another betting prediction and pick as we head to the Lightweight (155) Division for this next ranked matchup. Poland's No. 5-ranked Mateusz Gamrot will face New Zealand's No. 11 Dan Hooker. Check out our UFC odds series for our Gamrot-Hooker prediction and pick.
Mateusz Gamrot (24-2) has gone an impressive 7-2 inside the UFC since 2020. The former undefeated champ at KSW has turned in quite the UFC run and will now look for his fourth-straight win after beating the likes of Jalen Turner, Rafael Fiziev, and Rafael dos Anjos. He now looks to cement possible title contention with yet another win. Gamrot stands 5'10” with a 70.5-inch reach.
Dan Hooker (23-12) has gone 13-8 throughout his decade-long tenure with the UFC. After running into a bad stretch that saw him drop four of five fights including three bad knockouts, he's rebounded well with back-to-back wins over Claudio Puelles and Jalin Turner in his last two bouts. He'll now look to re-establish himself within the division. Hooker stands 6'0″ with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 305 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 305 Odds: Mateusz Gamrot-Dan Hooker Odds
Mateusz Gamrot: -340
Dan Hooker: +270
Over 2.5 rounds: -298
Under 2.5 rounds: +220
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Why Mateusz Gamrot Will Win
Mateusz Gamrot is on an absolute mission at the moment and he's won seven of his last eight bouts against top-level competition within the division. His last three wins are impressive in particular as he overcame a massive size discrepancy against Jalin Turner, silenced the striking of Rafael Fiziev, and bested Rafael dos Anjos in just about every area during his last fight. He's constantly proving himself as one of the most well-rounded MMA fighters on the planet and with just a couple more wins, he could make himself undeniable for a title shot in the near future.
Mateusz Gamrot manages his striking distance very well and he doesn't tend to absorb a ton of damage on the feet. We've seen him stay alive against much better strikers than he is and it all stems from making smart decisions on when to close the distance and find his offense. At his best, Gamrot is relentlessly chasing the takedowns and landing them more often than not. He's a terror to deal with on the ground and his constant pressure makes it difficult for his opponents to do much of anything against him. He's also very aggressive in chasing his game plan, so expect him to waste no time in doing so against Hooker.
Why Dan Hooker Will Win
Dan Hooker had a number of moments throughout his losing streak where he thought he'd be hanging his gloves up, but his recent success over the last two fights indicates he still has something left to give to the sport. He looked like the Dan Hooker of old against Jalin Turner in his last fight and although it was ruled a split decision, Hooker clearly wanted the win more with the way he pressed forward during the final round. If he can fight with the same loose, yet determined demeanor, he should be able to find success against a rather conservative fighter like Gamrot.
Coming into this fight as the heavy underdog, Dan Hooker will have to avoid getting taken down at all costs. While he's proficient on the ground, Gamrot has been known to keep his opponents grounded for rounds at a time, effectively negating the rest of their offense. Hooker will have to be diligent about stuffing takedowns with his size advantage and even more precise in landing his jab on the feet. He's also much more active with his kicking game, so expect him to use his front kick and low calf kicks to his advantage.
Final Mateusz Gamrot-Dan Hooker Prediction & Pick
There's a ton at stake during this matchup and we'll be seeing a true clash of styles as the grappler in Mateusz Gamrot takes on a striker in Dan Hooker. Gamrot is just a few wins away from a potential title shot while Dan Hooker is looking to prove his relevance within the division once again. He's a home favorite in Australia and the crowd will be a big factor in helping him get motivated for this fight.
If Dan Hooker can keep this fight on the feet and fight with a free spirit, he could land some damaging shots on Gamrot and eventually force the desperation takedowns. From there, we've seen Hooker be successful in pouring on the pressure and using his high striking output to finish the fight.
However, Mateusz Gamrot has been in peak form over the last few fights and we've seen him be very comfortable against more talented strikers than himself in the past. I expect his pressure to be too much for Dan Hooker as he eventually outlasts him in a three-round decision.
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Final Mateusz Gamrot-Dan Hooker Prediction & Pick: Mateusz Gamrot (-340); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-298)
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