The College Football Playoff Fiesta Bowl will feature a matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and the TCU Horned Frogs. Both teams have had successful seasons and will be looking to finish strong with a win in this highly anticipated bowl game to advance to the National Championship Game. Michigan football, led by head coach Jim Harbaugh, has been unbeaten this season and is the odds-on favorite against an overachieving TCU football squad.
On the other side, the Horned Frogs, under the guidance of head coach Sonny Dykes, will be looking to rebound after they lost in the Big 12 Championship Game to Kansas State. This game promises to be a thrilling matchup between two talented teams, and it will be exciting to see who comes out on top. Ahead of this College Football Playoff Semifinals clash between the Wolverines and the Horned Frogs at the State Farm Stadium, we’ll be making our Michigan football predictions.
On Saturday in Glendale, Arizona, third-ranked TCU and second-ranked Michigan will face off in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl. The first Big Ten-Big 12 meeting in the CFP will determine which team will prevail in the desert and face either Georgia or Ohio State in the National Championship Game.
Michigan football is making its second consecutive appearance in the College Football Playoff (CFP). With a record of 13-0, the Wolverines are the only team in the CFP to be ranked in the top 10 for both offense and defense. The team has scored an average of 40.1 points per game and has allowed an average of only 13.4 points per game. Since star running back Blake Corum suffered a season-ending knee injury, Donovan Edwards has emerged as a standout player. Wolverines quarterback JJ McCarthy has also stepped up and performed well.
As for TCU football, the Horned Frogs are making their first CFP appearance. At 12-1, they surely deserve to be here, though they'd rather have won the Big 12 Championship before facing Michigan. Averaging 40.3 points per game, the Horned Frogs' offense is led by Heisman Trophy runner-up Max Duggan. Keep in mind that TCU won five games during the regular season against ranked opponents before losing in the Big 12 title game.
Having said that, let's get into our Michigan football predictions for the 2023 Fiesta Bowl against TCU.
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4. Michigan defense swallows Max Duggan up
Michigan football has faced ten games against quarterbacks from the Big Ten and has only given up 44 rushing attempts for -4 yards. This suggests that the Wolverines' edge defense, anchored by disciplined linebackers Junior Colson and Michael Barrett, has been successful in containing opponents' quarterbacks. It is unknown how effective TCU quarterback Max Duggan will be as a playmaker outside the pocket and whether this will create opportunities for star wide receiver Quentin Johnson.
If Michigan will win here, it would be due to their stronger defense. That should hamper TCU's aerial attack. We expect that Duggan's effectiveness may be relatively limited by Michigan's superior pass rush and run defense. Michigan's secondary, particularly safety Rod Moore, should also prevent TCU's big plays over the top.
Consider that Michigan's defensive line has been anchored on edge defender Mike Morris. He is considered the best front-seven player on Michigan's roster and has recorded 11 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks, 19 hurries, and 35 pressures. Alongside him is Mazi Smith, who has contributed well to Michigan's strong run defense. Remember that they rank third in the country and have even allowed fewer yards per carry than Georgia. Smith's presence in the middle allows his teammates to disrupt opponents in other areas. Those guys will make it tough for Duggan & Co. to get as much yardage as they're used to.
3. Super sophomores show up and show out
In the absence of Corum, the sophomore combination of quarterback JJ McCarthy and Donovan Edwards has performed well. To illustrate, McCarthy has had back-to-back games with three touchdowns, although his completion percentage is still at just 56.1 percent.
It is unclear if Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh will be cautious when throwing the ball, but Edwards may provide a very suitable alternative. In victories over Penn State, Ohio State, and Purdue, Edwards averaged 9.1 yards per carry. He also gained 100 yards on the ground in every game where he had at least 15 carries. It is expected that Edwards will have 20 more carries in this matchup. As such, he should have a monster game.
Remember that Edwards was originally Michigan's backup running back, but he has arguably been the top running back in the country since the final game of the regular season. In victories over Ohio State and Purdue, Edwards rushed for 401 yards and three touchdowns. When at his best, Edwards is a complete running back and should be able to take advantage of opportunities created by Michigan's strong offensive line. Olusegun Oluwatimi anchors that o-line, which has become one of the best centers in college football. Oluwatimi's offensive line has helped turn Edwards into one of the top running backs in the country.
2. Wolverines unleash a second-half surge
This season, Michigan football has had a significant advantage over TCU in the second half of games. The Wolverines actually have a +206-point differential in second halves. TCU has also had a history of overcoming challenges and defeating opponents who were confident in their ability to win. However, Michigan is just built differently. The Wolverines just consistently outscore opponents in fourth quarters.
Keep in mind that Michigan football has maintained a consistent offensive approach throughout the season. The Wolverines rely on wearing down opponents by the third and fourth quarters. They have had success with this strategy, going 13-0 for the first time in program history and having the largest second-half scoring margin in NCAA football since Clemson in 2016. Michigan has defeated a variety of opponents, including rivals, highly-ranked foes, and opponents on the road, by outlasting them over the course of close games. That second-half surge has been Michigan's trademark in 2022, and we'll see that again here.
1. Michigan Wolverines will rally past the TCU Horned Frogs
Michigan football has never won a bowl game against a Big 12 team. The last time they played one was in 2013. Therefore, it is difficult to draw conclusions from these past matchups. The key might be TCU quarterback Max Duggan. If he can produce outside the pocket, it could make Michigan uncomfortable. Watch out for Wolverine penalties or turnovers, too.
We expect TCU to take the lead in the first quarter. The first half should also be close. If JJ McCarthy is effective, though, Michigan can survive the first half and enter the second half with confidence. Once again, we expect Michigan's strategic adjustments to be effective. In the third quarter, Michigan will use its calculated approach to take control of the game. McCarthy should also throw a couple of touchdown passes. Michigan's defense should seal the win with big plays in the final period.
As such, coach Jim Harbaugh should steer his side to a successful second-half rally. This win will give Michigan the chance to compete for its first national title since 1997.
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