The Georgia football program has become the current juggernaut in college football. Now comes the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta against Ohio State. When sizing up Georgia Ohio State, what is the one thing the Dawgs need to be concerned about more than anything else? Where can the Buckeyes pounce on an opening and defy expectations in this game? Let's look at the main path to victory for Ohio State football, the thing Georgia and Kirby Smart have to guard against on New Year's Eve.
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Georgia football: one fatal flaw which could be a problem vs Ohio State in College Football Playoff semifinal
Let's look at the one really big concern for Kirby Smart as he prepares Georgia for a wounded Ohio State team which is angry and determined after getting kicked in the teeth by Michigan one month ago.
It is true that Georgia played a great defensive game against Tennessee in early November. The Dawgs' secondary was at the top of its game against Hendon Hooker and the Vols' passing attack. That is the game Smart hopes Georgia will replicate in Mercedes-Benz Stadium against the Buckeyes. However, there are a few games from the 2022 season UGA will need to look at with a certain degree of worry. The Dawgs need to make sure they don't fall into a trap against an Ohio State team which certainly has high-end talent and is capable of going off in any individual game.
LSU has a lot of good receivers. For much of the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta on Dec. 3, Georgia's corners struggled to cover LSU's receivers. It really helped Georgia that the Dawgs got a blocked field goal and a subsequent return for a touchdown to create an early lead and force LSU to play catch-up. If LSU had kicked that field goal and the game had been relatively close in the third quarter, this contest could have become a lot less comfortable for Georgia.
The Dawgs don't have to worry about their rushing defense. They allow under 80 rushing yards per game. They are way too strong up front to get pushed back by a soft Ohio State offensive line which couldn't run the ball against Michigan. If Ohio State wins this College Football Playoff semifinal at the Peach Bowl, it will hit big plays down the field.
Georgia is a lot like Alabama. Do remember that before he became head coach at UGA, Kirby Smart was Nick Saban's defensive coordinator at Alabama. It was true when Kirby coached Alabama's defense, and it's true today, when Smart and former SEC head coach Will Muschamp coach Georgia's defense: You're not going to beat a Kirby Smart defense by running the ball. Smart makes sure his defensive line won't get overpowered. You can't go through the teeth of a Kirby Smart defense. You have to throw. You have to get receivers in open space. You have to hit the long ball, because you're not likely to create a 12-play, 80-yard touchdown drive which takes six minutes. Throwing the ball and throwing deep are the ways to beat Kirby Smart. Ohio State can do that with C.J. Stroud throwing to a bunch of fast receivers against Georgia's corners and safeties.
Ohio State's most recent College Football Playoff victory was its 2021 Sugar Bowl romp over Clemson, a 49-28 beatdown. Justin Fields threw for 385 yards and six touchdowns in that game. Ohio State did run the ball fairly well in that game, but it started with the downfield passing game. Fields averaged over 17 yards per completion. This was not dink-and-dunk football. The Buckeyes scored 48 points in last season's Rose Bowl with Stroud pitching the ball all over the field. Georgia has to know its corners will be under siege, and the Dawgs have to withstand the onslaught.
It really does figure to be the central battle in this game. Ohio State's offense will either roar or fall flat. There probably won't be an in-between scenario. This is likely to be a feast or famine Peach Bowl. Georgia has to shrink the field and make the game complicated for C.J. Stroud.
It's hard to see Georgia losing if it succeeds, and it's hard to see Georgia winning if it utterly fails.