Ranked 8th in the nation, John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats take on Chris Jans’ tough Mississippi State Bulldogs in this SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Mississippi State-Kentucky prediction and pick.

Flashback to this past Saturday. Alabama’s Mark Sears breaks the tie to give the Tide a 76-74 lead over Mississippi State with 2:22 remaining. Mississippi State’s Tolu Smith misses both of his free throws, brutal but it is not over yet because the Bulldogs get two huge stops. Still 76-74, Cam Matthews is fouled by Grant Nelson with 0:34 remaining. He misses both, Bulldogs lose. Heartbreak. 

Texas A&M’s Tyrece Radford is whistled for a foul on Reed Sheppard with no time left. Down 87-89, the freshman–while smiling–knocks down two free throws to force overtime. After allowing 25 offensive rebounds, only six minutes from Aaron Bradshaw, the Wildcats can still sneak away with a win. Unfortunately, there was not enough gas left in the tank–Cats fell short 92-97. 

Both teams are hungry for a bounce-back coming off closely contested losses, buckle up.

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Mississippi State-Kentucky Odds

Mississippi State: +5.5 (-110)

Moneyline: +188

Kentucky: -5.5

Moneyline: -230

Over: 154.5 (-110)

Under: 154.5 (-110)

How to Watch Mississippi State vs. Kentucky

Time: 7:00 pm ET/ 4:00 pm PT

TV: ESPN2

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Mississippi State Will Cover The Spread

Initially, it is important to mention that Kentucky is missing a major piece still. John Calipari said Adou Thiero (back) did not practice on Monday and is still considered day-to-day. It is looking like the Cats will be without Thiero once again. At 6-8 222lbs, Thiero is widely regarded as one of the team's best rebounders. His physicality and toughness would have been a good matchup with guys like DJ Jeffries and Cam Matthews. 

Without Thiero, the Kentucky frontcourt rotation has been narrowed down to Tre Mitchell, Aaron Bradshaw, and Ugonna Onyenso. While Onyenso looked incredible defending the rim against Texas A&M, the Aggies play a different style offensively than Mississippi State. Tolu Smith is coming off a 15-point 10-rebound performance in what was considered a poor game by his standards. 

Against Tennessee, the Mississippi State frontcourt fouled both Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka out. Next, they foul out Nick Pringle in six minutes and draw three out of Mohamed Wague in ten minutes. Kentucky’s big men getting into foul trouble has hindered them in previous games and it could play a huge role here as well. 

Additionally, the matchup history between these two teams is just wild. Especially, the post-COVID four-game series has been nothing short of entertaining. Kentucky has won three out of the four, with two of those wins coming in double overtime. The Cats' other win was by three points and the Bulldogs' only win was by one point. So, either double overtime or a one-possession game. This can be one of those ‘throw out the numbers’ types of games–these guys just seem to play each other airtight.

Why Kentucky Will Cover The Spread

Alarmingly, Mississippi State is shooting 63.2% from the free throw line over the past three games. With how close these teams have played each other over the past four years, every point matters down the stretch. For a Mississippi State team that gets just over 20% of their points from the free-throw line, missing 9.3 free throws per game in conference play is disastrous. 

Speaking of fouls, both of these teams have drawn and committed fouls at a nearly identical rate over the past three games. With this game being at Rupp and Mississippi State struggling mightily with free throws, advantage to the Cats at the line. 

Chris Jans said in his pregame press conference that Kentucky losing to Texas A&M was a bad thing for them. He said he was rooting for a different result. Usually, my analysis will be full of analytics and stat trends, but this one is more emotion-based for me. Looking at the stats it is easy to conclude that Mississippi State will not make enough threes or free throws to win the game. However, while that may be true, motivation plays a huge factor in this one.

Despite going to a desperate Texas A&M team and forcing overtime, Kentucky has a bad taste in its mouth. John Calipari said yesterday that he was more aggressive during film and practice. He went on to say that he singled out an individual player telling him, “You’re not going to play this way and play.” Calipari even said multiple players texted him later and apologized for their performances. That should give you a sense of how urgently this team wants to bounce back.

Final Mississippi State-Kentucky Prediction & Pick

This Kentucky team has the rare and ever-so-valuable ‘rise to the occasion’ trait. They may be young, but boy are they talented. With Mississippi State’s free throw woes and the inconsistency from three, their paths to victory narrow. Kentucky has what most teams do not have–a backup seven-footer for when their starting seven-footer gets into foul trouble. At home with a heightened sense of urgency, the Cats get it done. 

Final Mississippi State-Kentucky Prediction & Pick: Kentucky