The Los Angeles Angels and the Cleveland Indians will finish up a three-game series on Sunday afternoon. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make an Angels-Indians prediction and pick.
These two teams are actually at very similar points in their respective seasons. Both squads are essentially out of the playoffs, as they are both behind in their divisions by double-digit games. These teams have also each won five out of their last ten games. The Angels will be playing to avoid the sweep in this game, as the Indians took the first two matchups. It should be an entertaining game between two evenly matched squads, so expect some entertaining baseball.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the odds for Sunday's matchup.
MLB Odds: Angels-Indians Odds
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Los Angeles Angels ML (+114)
Cleveland Indians ML (-124)
Over 9 runs (-105)
Under 9 runs (-115)
Why The Angels Could Cover The Spread
Los Angeles is one of the most underrated offenses in the MLB. The Angels rank just outside the top ten in most major offensive stats, including OPS, OBP, and slugging percentage. This lineup has been full of tough outs for the entire season, and Indians pitcher Cal Quantrill should have a tough time working through this offense.
Quantrill has had an unexpectedly great season, but the Angels still have some statistical advantages over him. Quantrill currently owns a strikeout rate of 18.4%, a number that's somewhat low. Los Angeles only has two hitters that strike out at a high rate, so the Angels should be able to string together long at-bats against the righty.
The Indians starter also owns an expected batting average of .259, which is also a high number. Expected batting average measures the likelihood of a batted ball becoming a hit, so a high expected batting average definitely doesn't pair well with a pitcher who struggles to make hitters miss like Quantrill.
Why The Indians Could Cover The Spread
Cleveland is lucky enough to be facing Angels pitcher Jose Suarez in this one. Suarez's season-long numbers don't look terrible, but his stats from his last seven starts tell a different story. Over that recent stretch of games, Suarez posted a 5.45 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. Those numbers should look hittable to anyone, including this struggling Indians offense.
Starter Cal Quantrill has been much better than Suarez as of late. Over Quantrill's last seven starts, he's posted a 1.76 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Those are Cy Young-level numbers, and there's no reason that Quantrill can't continue his hot streak for one more game.
Helping Quantrill is the fact that the Angels are a much worse offense whenever they play on the road. Los Angeles sees a steep drop in all of their batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage when they hit away from Angel Stadium. Los Angeles also struggles against right-handed pitching, seeing a drop in all of their major batting stats when they face a righty as opposed to a lefty. All of these factors show that Quantrill should be able to put together another great outing in this series finale.
Final Angels-Indians Prediction & Pick
This is a pretty easy pick. The over/under should probably be set at eight or 8 1/2 runs, so it's easy to pick the under when it's set at nine runs. Quantrill should be able to shut down this Angels offense, and the Indians have been a poor hitting team all season long. The under should cash comfortably.
FINAL PICK: Under 9 runs (-115)
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