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MLB Odds: Astros vs. Mets prediction, odds and pick – 6/28/2022

The Houston Astros will take on the New York Mets on Tuesday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make an Astros-Mets prediction and pick.

 

This will be another battle between two of the best teams in the MLB. The Astros have unsurprisingly dominated the AL West with a 45-27 record. That mark has given them a stranglehold on the division, as their closest opponent, the Texas Rangers, trail them by a full ten games. The Mets have had similar success, with a 47-27 record. However, New York will be looking for some revenge in this game. These teams faced each other in a two-game set about a week ago, and the Mets dropped both contests. These games should be as entertaining as the first two, so let’s cut to the chase and get into the pick.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Astros-Mets MLB odds.

MLB Odds: Astros-Mets Odds

Houston Astros: -1.5 (+134)

New York Mets: +1.5 (-162)

Over: 8 (-110)

Under: 8 (-110)

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Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread

The Mets will send starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco to the mound to make the start here. Carrasco has been slightly disappointing on the season, earning a 4.42 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP on the season. Those numbers are just below average, and it’s fair to expect them to get worse against the Astros. Houston’s lineup has historically been fantastic against Carrasco, as there are six hitters in it that own a career batting average of .267 or higher. The Astros knocked Carrasco out of the game in two innings last time they faced him, tagging him for three home runs and five overall runs in the process. This is a good matchup for Houston, and they should capitalize.

Luckily, the Astros won’t have the same pitching problems as the Mets in this game. Framber Valdez will make the start, and he’s been nothing short of elite this season. He’s put up a 2.90 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP on the season, some of the best numbers in the MLB. Those numbers get even better when Valdez plays on the road, as his ERA drops to 1.95 while his WHIP falls to .91. Valdez only allows opposing hitters a .145 batting average when he plays on the road, so this seems like it could be another successful outing for the righty.

Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread

As they come into this game, the Mets have been one of the best teams in the entire MLB at covering the spread. They hold an overall record of 42-32 against the spread, with a 12-9 record when they come into the game as underdogs on the run line. New York is also 18-16 ATS when they play in Citi Field. Overall, this looks like a good spot to count on the Mets to cover.

Home field advantage will benefit the Mets in a plethora of ways. Carrasco has been a far more reliable pitcher at home, as he’s earned a 3.00 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in front of his home fans. The Astros are also a much worse offensive team when they play on the road, as they earn a lower batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage when they play anywhere but Houston. Overall, the Mets will benefit hugely from playing in front of their fans in this one.

Final Astros-Mets Prediction & Pick

This is a fairly easy pick. The Mets should keep things close enough to cover at the very least. Lock in New York in this one.

Final Astros-Mets Prediction & Pick: New York Mets: +1.5 (-162)