While the calendar still may read April, the heat of this highly anticipated matchup feels like a middle of July contest with playoff implications on the line, as the Toronto Blue Jays will battle it out with their AL East adversaries in the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday. Check out our MLB odds series, where our Blue Jays-Red Sox prediction and pick will be made.
The Blue Jays storm into Fenway Park with a 6-4 record through 10 games, good enough to be in first place of a brutal gauntlet of an American League East division. After having split their weekend series with the Oakland Athletics, Toronto will give the reigns to lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who was roughed up in only three innings pitched in his last start against the Yankees. So far, Kikuchi is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA.
Serving as Kikuchi's counterpart in this one will be right-handed hurler Nathan Eovaldi, who is already making his third start of the year against the Blue Jays. Eovaldi pitched well enough to get his first win of the season versus Detroit, as he allowed two runs on four hits while striking out six batters. A a whole, the Red Sox are coming off a split of their own against the Twins and now sit at 5-5, tied for second with the Yankees in the division.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Blue Jays-Red Sox MLB odds.
MLB odds: Blue Jays-Red Sox Odds
Toronto Blue Jays: +1.5 (-162)
Boston Red Sox : -1.5 (+134)
Over: 9 (-120)
Under: 9 (-102)
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Why the Blue Jays Could Cover the Spread
Considered by many to be one of the favorites in the AL heading into the season, the Blue Jays should be expected to outslug the Red Sox on Tuesday, a big reason why they could cover the spread. Toronto is fifth in the majors in batting .262 against right-handed pitching, while also tallying an MLB-high 14 home runs. This could be a problem for Boston, as Eovaldi has been bitten by the long ball already this year four times through 10 innings pitched. While this is cause for concern for Red Sox fans, it is something that the Blue Jays faithful can take pride in heading into this matchup.
Two players to watch for who will have a huge impact on how this one turns out are SS Bo Bichette and OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr, who are a combined 9-22 against the 32-year-old Eovaldi. Not to mention, a key stat for Toronto has been its slugging percentage, which ranks sixth in the majors at .435.
Insert LHP Yusei Kikuchi, who is at times unreliable but is capable of baffling batters when he is clicking on all cylinders. Kikuchi could be the deciding factor on Tuesday evening, though he also has potential disaster written all over him. The hope for Toronto is that Kikuchi can pitch effectively enough to get to the later innings, where the bullpen can take over from there.
Why the Red Sox Could Cover the Spread
Last season, the Red Sox went a combined 10-9 against the Blue Jays, reiterating the fierce closeness that these two teams exhibit when they meet on the diamond versus one another. This is the start of multiple matchups with Toronto, as they will play four more up north after Boston makes a quick trip down south to Tampa to square off with the Rays. So far, only three game separate the first-place Blue Jays and the bottom-feeder Baltimore Orioles, so these are the type of games that the Red Sox can certainly not afford to lose.
At first glance, Boston has been pretty well-balanced on the mound and in the batter's box, currently ranking as a middle-of-the-pack club in statistical categories on each side. While this has translated to an even record of 5-5 on the year, Boston would surely love to improve in both aspects to take that next step into becoming contenders.
If there is one difference maker, it's third baseman Rafael Devers, who is one of the elite hitters the game has to offer. Devers is capable of sending the ball into the seats at any given time, so Blue Jays pitchers will need to be careful in not giving him anything too good to hit.
On the mound, Eovaldi will be making his ninth career start opposite Toronto. In those appearances, Eovaldi is 1-2 with a 4.56 ERA with 48 strikeouts in 49 innings pitched. Therefore, Eovaldi is definitely no stranger to the Blue Jays, and he will use his familiarity to try to outwit Toronto's lineup.
Final Blue Jays-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
The bottom line in this one comes down to pitching, like most intense and evenly matched contests do. Bettors should be weary of putting their trust in Kikuchi, as the Japanese born southpaw is 0-1 with a sky-high 5.92 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox. Additionally, expect Fenway Park to be packed, providing a tough atmosphere for Toronto to come out victorious in the first matchup of many between these two rivals. Boston prevails here.
Final Blue Jays-Red Sox Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+134)
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