MLB odds: Braves vs. Giants prediction, odds, pick, and more – 9/17/2021
Two division leaders meet tonight as the Atlanta Braves visit the San Francisco Giants in Oracle Park. As both teams look to solidify their lead, let’s continue our MLB odds series and make a Braves-Giants prediction and pick.
San Francisco currently stands at 95-52 and is 47-25 at home. If you put $100 on every single Giants game so far this season, you’d be up $3,076 on the moneyline.
Atlanta currently stands at 76-68 and is 39-32 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Braves game so far this season, you’d be down $692 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Braves-Giants odds.
MLB Odds: Braves-Giants Odds
Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)*
Atlanta Braves ML (+155)
San Francisco Giants ML (-165)
Over 7.5 Runs (-115)
Under 7.5 Runs (-105)
Why The Braves Could Win This Game
Ian Anderson has been a consistently solid starter for his team despite missing a month and a half of the season with shoulder problems.
Anderson has made 21 starts this year and pitched to a 3.61 ERA. It’s extremely rare that the young righty doesn’t give Atlanta the chance to win a ballgame. He’s pitched at least five innings in 15 of his 21 starts, and he hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in an outing all season.
As a bonus, Anderson has proven he can handle this Giants lineup already. Less than a month ago, he shut the Giants out over 5.2 innings in a game Atlanta eventually won 9-0.
Anderson has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the ballpark (his HR/9 is only 0.98), and he has the stuff to rack up K’s (107 K’s in 109.2 innings). It’s unlikely the Giants knock him around and expect him to keep Atlanta in striking distance.
At the plate, the Braves have the daunting task of getting runs across with Logan Webb on the mound. Webb has been dominant, but the Braves are catching him after his worst two-game span since the start of the year.
In his first two starts of the season, Webb allowed three earned runs in each game. In the next 19 games, this feat was never replicated. But in start 20 and 21, Webb allowed three earned runs to the Rockies and then four earned runs to the Cubs.
This has to be slightly concerning to the Giants faithful, considering the light-hitting cellar dwellers were capable of stringing enough hits together to score seven earned runs with only one home run. If Webb comes out with a flat sinker, the Braves are going to do more damage than the Rockies or Cubs could hope to do.
Why The Giants Could Win This Game
The one definite advantage the Giants hold in this matchup is on the mound. While Ian Anderson has been good, Logan Webb has been dominant.
In 14 starts between May and August, Webb allowed more than two earned runs on only one outing. He shut the opposing team out in four of those appearances, including a seven-inning gem against the Braves in which he racked up six strikeouts.
Webb’s biggest strength is keeping the ball on the ground and in the park. In 125.1 innings of work, the sinkerballer has allowed only nine home runs. He has yet to allow multiple homers in a game this season.
This is important against a Braves team with the third-most home runs in the league and has multiple players in the lineup that are swinging for the fences in what seems like every at-bat.
It isn’t easy to get any of Webb’s pitches elevated, and Oracle’s dimensions should also help any balls that do happen to get lifted in the air stay in play. Webb should return to his dominant ways tonight.
It helps the Giants odds that their lineup is red hot at the moment. In nine out of ten of their last matchups, San Francisco has scored six or more runs.
Ian Anderson is a pitcher that is unlikely to get roughed up, but it would also be a shock to see him pitch another game against this Giants lineup without some damage.
This season, Anderson’s most significant weakness has been limiting the walk and currently holds a BB/9 of 3.86. This is a recipe for disaster against a Giants lineup with the ability to spit on pitches that most teams flail at.
San Francisco has drawn the third-most walks in the league, and their lineup has one of the lowest chase rates to go with it. Anderson probably won’t be mowing down batters with ease tonight, so he’ll have to rely on getting weak contact to navigate the lineup. Eventually, this Giants team will break through and get to him, even if it takes a few innings.
Final Braves-Giants Prediction & Pick
We have a matchup between two lineups that use the homer to quickly post crooked numbers against two pitchers that have been extremely hard to take deep. In the end, the starters have the advantage. Both starters have a HR/9 below one, which should handicap both lineups. Expect to see plenty of ground balls off Atlanta’s bats and a good amount of weak contact from the Giants. Add in the factor that this game will have a playoff atmosphere from the first pitch, and we should see the arms dominate the bats. This game should finish comfortably below eight runs. Take the under.
FINAL BRAVES-GIANTS PREDICTION & PICK: UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-105)