The Atlanta Braves take on the Seattle Mariners. Check out our MLB odds series for our Braves Mariners prediction and pick.
Max Fried goes to the hill for the Braves, while George Kirby will start for the Mariners.
Max Fried has a 2.48 ERA, the product of relentless consistency since a few rocky outings in April. Fried, since May 14, has allowed more than three earned runs in only one start. One. That's a run of reliability which is similar to what Framber Valdez has produced for the Houston Astros with his streak of consecutive quality starts. Fried, who faced Valdez and the Astros in the 2021 World Series, is in the same league as Framber. Fried hasn't allowed three runs in a start since July 25. He goes to the mound, eats up innings, doesn't allow many runs, and puts this white-hot Braves team in position to win a ballgame. He gave up four earned runs in 13 innings across two early-August starts against the New York Mets. That kind of reliability is why the Braves have managed to overtake the Mets in the National League East standings. The Braves enter Saturday's game half a game ahead of New York.
George Kirby, at the end of June, had an ERA over four runs. He was solid, but hardly spectacular. The Mariners brought him into the rotation in early May, with Seattle struggling to find its footing. They needed something more from Kirby, as with nearly every other player on the team.
Since the beginning of July, Kirby has not given up more than three earned runs in any start. How's that for a response? Kirby has consistently pitched into the sixth inning and allowed fewer than three runs, setting up the high-quality Mariner bullpen and being a central part of Seattle's strong second half of the season. Kirby has the Mariners in position to make their first postseason since 2001.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Braves-Mariners MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Braves-Mariners Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+140)
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-170)
Over: 7 (-106)
Under: 7 (-114)
Why The Braves Could Cover the Spread
Max Fried is an elite, battle-tested pitcher. He knows the stakes here: The Braves have a half-game lead over the Mets. They have won a ton of games over the past few months, performing at a 120-win pace since they caught fire at the start of June. There's no time to let up, though: Winning the division means a week off after the end of the regular season on Oct. 5, and it also means the Braves would have to win only two series, not three, to return to the World Series. George Kirby is a very good pitcher, but Max Fried is better, and his Braves teammates are hammering the baseball and clearly playing the best ball in the sport right now. The Dodgers have a better record in the National League, but the Braves are truly on fire at the moment.
Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread
The Braves have won eight in a row. They are due to have a clunker, and George Kirby can shut down the Braves' bats. Atlanta needs this game a lot, but Seattle needs this game more, given the fight for a wild card spot and the intense need to end the Mariners' 21-year playoff drought, which the franchise desperately needs to achieve in this next month.
Final Braves-Mariners Prediction & Pick
If the Mariners win, it won't be a surprise, but it remains that the Braves are the better team and Fried is a better pitcher than Kirby. It's hard to go against that, especially since the Braves are locked in a tight race and need every game.
Final Braves-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Braves -1.5
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