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The Philadelphia Phillies are set to host the Atlanta Braves today in the final matchup of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Braves-Phillies prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Philadelphia won the series opener 6-4, with the Braves taking the second game by a score of 6-3. The Braves had been the hotter team heading into the week, having won seven of their past 10 games prior to this series, with the Phillies going 3-7 in the same span.
Atlanta holds a comfortable lead in the National League wild card race, and is closing in on the NL East-leading New York Mets at 59-40. Philadelphia is 8 1/2 games behind the Braves at 50-47, but is only a half game back of the St. Louis Cardinals for the National League's final wild card spot.
Here are the Braves-Phillies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Phillies Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+108)
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-130)
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
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Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
Veteran right-hander Charlie Morton is slated to get the start for the Braves, as he looks to build off one of his best performances of the season. Morton struck out nine batters while allowing just two hits in six shutout innings against the Los Angeles Angels last Friday, in what was the latest indicator that Morton has turned a corner after a forgettable start to 2022.
Morton posted a 7.00 ERA while allowing opponents to hit .296 against him during the first month of the season, which has skewed his overall totals, but he's improved each month as the year has gone on. He posted a 4.60 ERA with opponents hitting .261 against him in May, before recording a 3.52 ERA with opponents hitting .209 against him in June. July has been his most productive month of the season to date, during which he's posted a 2.52 ERA and .157 opponent's batting average.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia starter Kyle Gibson has gotten worse as the season has progressed. Gibson kept his ERA below 3.00 through his first six starts of the season, but the wheels have since fallen off. He posted a 5.81 ERA in June and has a 5.48 ERA through four starts this month. His last outing, during which he gave up six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings to a Chicago Cubs team that ranks in the bottom five of the National League in runs scored, only adds to the optimism for Atlanta backers. The Braves should also have an advantage once the game gets to the relievers, with their NL-best 3.15 bullpen ERA sitting 70 points lower than the Phillies.
Michael Harris and Matt Olson each homered for the Braves in Tuesday's win, as the bats stayed hot for an Atlanta squad that leads the National League with 37 long balls this month. The Braves also rank in the top three this month in OPS, slugging percentage and runs scored.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
For as much as Gibson has struggled as of late, the Braves haven't been the source of these issues. In fact, one of his best showings of the past 2 1/2 months came against Atlanta on May 24. The Braves ended up taking this game 6-5, but Gibson was a rock in his five innings on the mound, allowing just two earned runs with eight strikeouts while stranding five runners on the base paths. On the other side, Morton's results have varied in his two starts against Philadelphia. He gave up only two earned runs despite allowing seven hits and four walks in 5 2/3 innings on June 28, but was tagged for nine hits and four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings on May 25.
While the Phillies haven't come close to matching Atlanta's production at the plate, their ability to find success against right-handed pitching is worth noting. They are currently sixth in the National League in OPS and fourth in slugging percentage against righties, while ranking among the top half of the league in RBIs and strikeouts. Third baseman Alec Bohm has provided a spark at the plate as of late, posting a .526/.550/.579 slash line with a team-high 10 hits and 1.129 OPS over the past five games. Catcher J.T. Realmuto, meanwhile, has four RBIs, three walks, one home run and a .308/.438/.538 slash line in his last four games.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick
Given Morton's recent success and Gibson's potential, the under play is worth consideration. However, considering the first two games of the series have had a combined 19 runs, and both teams have a track record of slugging the ball well, the run total dropping from nine to 8.5 is a notable movement. Given the Braves have the more productive starting pitcher on the mound, in addition to their last five wins being by at least three runs, betting on them to win by two at plus money is a solid play.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Braves -1.5 (+108)