The New York Mets get set to host the Milwaukee Brewers for the second game of a three-game series at Citi Field. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Brewers-Mets prediction and pick.
New York took the series opener by a score of 4-2 as right-hander Tylor Megill delivered a solid outing and received the win. The Mets got off to a strong start against the red-hot Brewers and will now look to carry momentum into the second game with their ace on the bump. Milwaukee will be looking to bounce back as they've lost two straight games following their 11-game winning streak.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Brewers-Mets odds.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Mets Odds
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (+105)
New York Mets -1.5 (-125)
Over 7 Runs (-108)
Under 7 Runs (-112)
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
Despite the loss in the series opener on Monday, the Milwaukee Brewers are still the hottest team in baseball over the last few weeks. They are now 11-2 in their last 13 games, improving their record to 51-35 on the season. Milwaukee has also fared well against the Mets with wins in eight of their last 10 head-to-head matchup's as well. Expect them to be motivated to return to their winning ways after dropping two-straight games coming in.
The Brewers are averaging 4.38 runs per game, which is the 14th-best mark in the Majors. Their 3.86 runs allowed per game ranks sixth in the league and their pitching staff averages the most strikeouts per game as well. The Brewers are currently 25-17 with a +0.92 run differential in road games this season. Avisail Garcia has been their offensive anchor as he leads the team in hits, home runs, and RBI.
Milwaukee will turn to left-hander Brett Anderson as they look to even the series. Anderson has struggled this season with a 2-5 record and 4.69 ERA through 12 starts. He is having trouble getting swings-and-misses this season as he has punched out 31 batters in 48 innings of work. The southpaw will look to build off of a brilliant performance that saw him deal seven innings of one-hit ball against the Reds on June 15.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The New York Mets currently lead the NL East with a record of 44-37 on the season. They have been a tremendous defensive team with sporadically inconsistent offensive production. New York's pitching staff has been the best in the league at Citi Field, which explains their 25-11 home record.
New York's offense currently averages 3.69 runs per game, which is second-to-last in all of baseball. Their offense has been even worse at home as the Mets average just 3.39 runs per game at Citi Field. Despite the offensive struggles, this pitching staff is clearly the best in baseball as they allow just 2.17 runs per game at home. The Mets +1.22 run differential at Citi Field is certainly shocking, but also extremely impressive and reliable.
The Mets will turn to right-hander Jacob deGrom as they look to clinch the series. The MVP-favorite is putting up all-time numbers with a 7-2 record and 0.95 ERA through 14 starts. He has struck out an absurd 136 batters through his first 85 innings of work. deGrom has allowed five earned runs over his last 13 innings and although that's impressive, expect that number to drastically decrease in the near future.
Final Brewers-Mets Prediction & Pick
I'm picking the Mets to win this ballgame for one simple reason. Jacob deGrom is having one of the best seasons by a starting pitcher of all time. Opposing batters are hitting just .122 against the Cy Young and MVP favorite, which is why deGrom has a sub-one ERA. Milwaukee's offense seems to be returning to earth as they've scored just two runs over their last 18 innings of play. New York should cover this spread in a low-scoring affair.
FINAL PICK: New York Mets -1.5 (-125)
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