The Milwaukee Brewers look to complete a four-game sweep in San Francisco against the Giants on Thursday afternoon. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Brewers-Giants prediction and pick.
Largely considered the favorites heading into this series, the Giants have now lost four games in a row, falling back into second place in the NL West for the first time in months. Meanwhile, the Brewers have used dominant pitching (allowing just five runs all series thus far) to assert themselves as one of baseball's best teams. They have opened up a 10.5-game lead in the NL Central, leading the second-place Cincinnati Reds.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for Thursday's game.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Giants Odds
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Milwaukee Brewers (+161)
San Francisco Giants (-175)
Over 7 1/2 runs (-107)
Under 7 1/2 runs (-113)
Why The Brewers Could Win
Brewers starting pitcher Eric Lauer posted an even 3.00 ERA in August. In fact, he has not allowed more than three earned runs in a start since June 1. While Lauer should be effective, the bullpen has the chance to be even better. In yesterday's 5-2 win, Milwaukee's ‘pen pitched seven innings, allowing just two runs and striking out 11 batters. This is a pitching staff that ranks among the league's best nowadays, and has backed up an offense that hasn't had a huge series at the plate. I'd expect Lauer to go at least 5.0 innings, allowing no more than one run, opening up the game to a bullpen that should be able to shut down the Giants struggling bats in the late innings. Josh Hader also recently picked up his 29th save, tied for 4th-most in MLB.
Why The Giants Could Win
Logan Webb, the Giants starter on Thursday afternoon, had one of the best Augusts of any pitcher in baseball. In six starts during the month, Webb posted a 1.41 ERA, allowing just six earned runs and striking out 41 batters. In fact, every start was a quality start. He pitched at least 6.0 in every game, never allowing more than two runs. His most recent start was in Atlanta, where he pitched seven shutout innings. On the month, Webb went 5-1. Look for Webb to continue his dominance today against a Brewers team that, while playing well, hasn't had a truly excellent offensive performance all series. If Webb can throw another six or seven innings allowing a run or fewer, that should be enough to make this a 2-1 game in favor of the Giants.
Final Brewers-Giants Prediction & Pick
Regardless who wins this game, it is going to be an epic pitching battle. Given that both starters have excelled significantly lately, my gut feeling here is to back the plus money and side with the Brewers, who are looking to extend their winning streak to five games. Both Lauer and Webb pitch quality starts, but ultimately the Brewers break through late against the Giants bullpen. Brewers win, 3-2.
FINAL PICK: Brewers MONEYLINE (+161)
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