The Milwaukee Brewers will look to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates as the two NL Central teams meet at PNC Park on Thursday. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Brewers-Pirates prediction and pick.
The Pirates defeated the Brewers 8-7 in a wild game on Wednesday. First, Milwaukee already led 1-0 in the second inning when Willy Adames clipped an RBI double to right field that scored two. Rowdy Tellez then plucked an RBI single to right-center field, making it 4-0. Then, the Pirates began their rally. Ke'Bryan Hayes delivered an RBI single in the third inning that scored two, cutting the lead in half. Later, the Pirates had already tied it when Hayes hit an RBI single to give Pittsburgh the lead. O'Neil Cruz blasted a two-run bomb to right, giving the Pirates a 7-4 advantage.
Milwaukee would not die, as they rallied for three runs in the eighth, cemented by Tellez's RBi single. We had a tie game entering the ninth inning. Ultimately, Bryan Reynolds blasted an absolute shot into deep right field for his first career walk-off home run, giving the Pirates the 8-7 victory.
Today, Brandon Woodruff will go for the Brewers. Woodruff is 9-3 with a 3.55 ERA in 2022. Recently, he tossed 6 1/3 innings while allowing one earned run on four hits with nine strikeouts. Woodruff has struck out 17 batters over two starts. Additionally, he is 2-0 with a 2.86 ERA over four starts against the Pirates in 2022. He is 2-0 with a 3.70 ERA in four starts (six games overall) in his history against the Pirates at PNC Park.
Zach Thompson will go for the Pirates. Thompson is 3–8 with a 5.09 ERA. Recently, he went 5 2/3 innings while allowing seven earned runs on 11 hits. Thompson has gone over five innings twice this season.
Here are the Brewers-Pirates MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Pirates Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (-146)
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (+122)
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
The Brewers have a lot of questions to answer. Namely, how could they trade Josh Hader? That is neither here, nor there. They have not won since that trade and their bullpen allowed six earned runs last night, including the winning run by the newly appointed closer, Devin Williams.
It just means Milwaukee will have to compensate with hitting. Likewise, the Brewers remain solid at hitting the baseball. Milwaukee ranks 17th in batting average, sixth in on-base percentage, sixth in runs, fourth in home runs, and sixth in slugging percentage. Christian Yelich remains solid, batting .263 with eight home runs, 35 RBIs, and 68 runs. Substantially, he is 3 for 8 this week against the Pirates. Yelich is batting .264 with two home runs, seven RBIs, and 15 runs against Pittsburgh this year. Meanwhile, Hunter Renfroe is batting .246 with 19 home runs, 43 RBIs, and 35 runs. He has not done well in this series, going 0 for 8. Likewise, Renfroe is batting .148 (4 for 27) with one home run, one RBI, and three runs over seven games against the Pirates.
The Brewers will cover the spread if Woodruff can toss a good game. Also, the Brewers need a much better performance from their bullpen. Milwaukee also needs their hitters to execute again. Most teams win when they score seven runs. However, the Brewers could not finish the job yesterday. Milwaukee hopes to avoid last night's mistakes.
Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread
The Pirates are a terrible team but on the verge of a sweep. Their pitching has been atrocious, but their hitting has covered up their faults and helped them to two victories.
Reynolds is batting .248 with 15 home runs, 32 RBIs, and 40 runs. Likewise, he is batting .234 with one home run, two RBIs, and six runs over 14 games against the Brewers, Reynolds is 3 for 8 in this series. Hayes is batting .244 with five home runs, 29 RBIs, and 41 runs. Alternatively, he is batting .222 with one home run, seven RBIs, and seven runs over 15 games against the Brewers. Three of his seven RBIs came last night.
The Pirates can cover the spread with a good pitching performance by Thompson. Additionally, if the Pirates can prevent Yelich and Renfroe from hurting them, it will increase their chances of success. It also means the Pirates have to continue to hit the ball well. Moreover, they have to get to Woodruff to force Milwaukee to use their tired bullpen again.
Final Brewers-Pirates Prediction & Pick
The Brewers lead the season series 9-6. Additionally, the Pirates can sweep the series for the first time in a few years. Woodruff will prevent that from happening with a good performance at PNC. Expect the Brew Crew to take this, and cover it.
Final Brewers-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (-146)
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