The St. Louis Cardinals and the San Francisco Giants started off their three-game series with a thriller on Monday night. With that in mind, it’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Cardinals-Giants prediction and pick.
Before we get into the pick, let’s see how the bookmakers have set the lines for Tuesday’s game.
MLB Odds: Cardinals-Giants Odds
St. Louis Cardinals ML (+123)
San Francisco Giants ML (-133)
Over 8 runs (-122)
Under 8 runs (+102)
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
The Cardinals will be sending starting pitcher Adam Wainwright to the mound for Tuesday’s game. Wainwright is far past his peak as an elite starter, but he’s been surprisingly good all year.
He’s been even better in his last seven games, where he owns an ERA of 2.93 and a 1.00 WHIP. Both numbers are phenomenal, and they’re even more impressive when taking into account how many innings Wainwright has pitched. He routinely works deep into games, with four of his last seven starts ending in or past the sixth inning. If Wainwright can help cover for a bullpen that lacks depth by going far into the game, the Cardinals have a great chance to pull off a second straight upset.
Helping Wainwright will be the general state of the Giants’ offense. San Francisco hasn’t swung the bat well lately, scoring more than four runs in only four of their last ten games. It doesn’t help that starting catcher and offensive centerpiece Buster Posey is questionable for Tuesday’s game. The Giants are already riddled with injuries, so missing Posey would really hurt a San Francisco lineup that’s already pretty thin.
Why The Giants Could Cover The Spread
The Giants will send another surprisingly good starting pitcher to the mound in Johnny Cueto. Cueto is 35 but is still pitching at a level that no one expected him to reach. He’s sporting an ERA of 4.00 to go along with a WHIP of 1.29 on the season, both decent numbers.
Besides Cueto’s solid stats, there are a plethora of factors going his way in this matchup. Let’s start with an ice-cold Cardinals offense. St. Louis has scored more than four runs only four times in their last ten games, with three of those times coming against the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks, two of the worst teams in the MLB. Last night was an anomaly from the Cardinals, and I expect them to regress back to their normal ways.
Another encouraging fact is that St. Louis is horrible when playing on the road. Their team batting average plummets from .243 to .213, with the team OBP, slugging percentage, and OPS all falling too. The Cardinals also struggle against right-handed pitching. All of the St. Louis offensive stats nosedive when comparing their production against righties to their production against lefties.
Final Cardinals-Giants Prediction & Pick
After a surprising offensive outbreak from the Cardinals on Monday night, I fully expect San Francisco to rebound. The Giants have the advantage in any way you look at the matchup, so I’m picking them to even up the series at one game apiece.
FINAL PICK: San Francisco Giants ML (-133)