The St. Louis Cardinals are set to host the Chicago Cubs today in the second matchup of a three-game set at Busch Stadium. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Cubs-Cardinals prediction and pick we have laid out below.
St. Louis took the first game of the series in convincing fashion, winning 6-0 behind seven shutout innings from Adam Wainwright, three RBIs from Paul Goldschmidt, and multi-hit performances by Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Lars Nootbaar. The victory moved the Cardinals, who are tied with the Philadelphia Phillies for the final National League wild-card spot at 55-48, just two games back of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central title race. The Cubs' season is by and large a lost cause at this point. At 41-61 at 13 1/2 games out of the National League wild-card race, their playoff hopes are all but officially eliminated.
The Cardinals have a 30-20 record at home this season, while Chicago is 21-29 on the road in 2022.
Here are the Cubs-Cardinals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Cardinals Odds
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-128)
St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+108)
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
Both teams should feel good about their starting pitching outlook heading into today's contest. On the Chicago side, Justin Steele is coming off a second straight solid month after posting ERAs above 5.00 in the first two months of the season. The 27-year-old left-hander followed up a 3.03 ERA in June with a 2.11 ERA and .210 opponent batting average in July. He's given up more than three earned runs only once in his 10 starts since May 26, and has given up one or less earned runs in six of these outings.
The Cubs' performance against right-handing pitching also bodes well for them, as they square off against St. Louis right-hander Miles Mikolas. Chicago is sixth in the NL in OPS, on-base percentage, and RBIs, while ranking third in home runs and doubles against righties this year.
Third baseman Patrick Wisdom has been the Cubs' top hitter over the past week, posting a 1.039 OPS with a .294/.333/.706 slash line, 12 total bases, two home runs, three RBIs, and three runs scored over the last five games. He has a.451 slugging percentage and 19 home runs on the year. Nelson Velazquez, who has three home runs and nine RBIs with a .385 batting average over the last 10 games, is another Chicago bat to keep an eye on.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
As mentioned above, starting pitching seems to be a positive for each squad tonight. Mikolas has a 2.86 ERA and .217 opponent's batting average in 21 starts this season, ranking 18th in all of baseball in both categories. He's cooled off a bit after a scorching hot start to the season, during which he posted a 1.52 April ERA, but his 3.30 ERA over his last seven starts is still plenty respectable. Mikolas' production his last time out was more on par with the rest of his season, allowing six hits and two earned runs in seven innings in a win over the Washington Nationals.
In a matchup with fairly even starting pitching, the relief staff could be a deciding factor. The Cardinals are fourth in the National League in bullpen era at 3.64, while the Cubs are ninth with a 4.07 bullpen ERA.
Both teams were almost equal in run production during July, with the Cardinals and Cubs ranking 10th and 11th in the NL, respectively, with 98 and 92 runs scored. However, Chicago also had one more game last month, with St. Louis'.726 OPS sitting 53 points above its counterpart. The Cardinals are only 4-4 since the All-Star break, but their bats haven't been a problem, belting 14 home runs with a .788 OPS during this stretch while posting better batting average, slugging, and on-base percentage figures.
Final Cubs-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
With sluggers like Arenado — who has 45 extra-base hits, 20 home runs, and 61 RBIs with a .292 batting average this season — and Goldschmidt — who is 12-for-34 with six home runs over the last 10 games — in the lineup, the Cardinals seem to have an obvious advantage on offense. As for the case for the Cubs, it's possible that Tuesday's lackluster performance was partly a result of the trade deadline rumblings having a mental effect — and it certainly doesn't hurt clubhouse morale that Wilson Contreras and Ian Happ were not shipped off when all was said and done. At even money on a +0.5 run line, a first five innings bet on the Cubs appears to be a solid option, given the even nature of the starting pitching matchup. As for full-game bets, though, the under seems to be the play here as long as it doesn't drop below eight runs.
Final Cubs-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
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