The Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals will clash in the finale of a three-game series at Busch Stadium with each looking to take the series. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Cubs-Cardinals prediction and pick.
The Cardinals defeated the Cubs 5-3 on Saturday. The Cards started fast in the first inning when Brendon Donovan clipped an RBI single that drove home Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, giving the Cards a 2-0 lead. Later, the Cubs finally scored in the sixth inning when Dylan Carlson cracked an RBI double to cut the deficit to 2-1. Chicago had another shot in the eight, trailing 3-1. Next, Rafael Ortega blasted a 2-2 pitch to deep right field for a two-run home run. The blast was the fifth of the year for Ortega, tying the game at 3-3. The Cards responded in their half when Ivan Herrera clipped a sacrifice fly and Tommy Edman followed with an RBI double.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Cubs-Cardinals odds:
MLB odds: Cubs-Cardinals Odds
Cubs: +1.5 (-142)
Cardinals: -1.5 (+108)
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
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Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
The Cubs have done fairly well against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Chicago is 26-26 in games contested at Busch Stadium since 2016. Likewise, the Cubs are 8-7 since 2020. The Cubbies do better in St. Louis than at home.
Chicago will send Matt Swarmer on the mound. Swarmer is 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA. He has struggled recently, as he lasted four innings in his last start, allowing five runs (four earned) on four hits. Likewise, Swarmer has lasted five or fewer innings in three straight starts. He has also allowed 14 earned runs over four games. However, Swarmer had his best start of the season against the Cardinals last month. He allowed one earned run on two hits through six innings with five strikeouts.
Ortega is one of the reasons the Cubs could cover. He blasted a laser shot in yesterday's contest that gave the Cubs a fighting chance. He is batting .421 with one home run, three RBIs, and three runs scored in six games against the Cardinals in 2022. Additionally, he is batting .404 with one home run, four RBIs, and four runs in 17 career games against St. Louis. Ortega is a significant reason why the Cubs have competed well against the Cardinals and gives them a chance to beat them every time.
The Cubs will cover the spread if Swarmer can replicate his success against the Cardinals. Additionally, Chicago needs Ortega to remain hot against St. Louis. The Cubs will cover if they can jump out of the gate with an early lead.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
The Cardinals had one major issue in yesterday's game. They left nine runners on the base paths. It is something St. Louis must rectify to have a chance to close out this series and appease the spread.
St. Louis will roll with Jack Flaherty on the mound. Flaherty is 0-0 with a 7.50 ERA. He is easing his way back from injury and lasted three innings in his last start, allowing two earned runs on three hits. However, Flaherty's location is way off. He walked five batters in that start. Thus, he must cut down on the walks and not give the Cubs easy bases.
The Cardinals have sluggers like Goldschmidt and Arenado. Additionally, they have pop at the top of the lineup. Edman provides the spark the Cards need to score on most days. Likewise, he provided the insurance in yesterday's game. Edman is batting .300 with one home run, two RBIs, and six runs scored in seven games against the Cubs in 2022. Alternatively, he is batting .258 with one home run, four RBIs, and four runs scored through 17 games in his career against Chicago. Edman is already performing better this season and will look to continue the trend.
The Cardinals will cover the spread if Flaherty can go a little longer in this game, relieving some of the pressure off the bullpen. Additionally, Edman needs to provide the spark at the top of the lineup to give Goldschmidt and Arenado multiple opportunities to drive him in.
Final Cubs-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
The Cardinals covered the spread yesterday despite blowing a late lead. Likewise, they face a Cubs pitcher who did well against them the first go-round. The second time facing him may present a different experience, perhaps a better chance. Goldschmidt and Arenado have yet to inflict direct damage in this series. However, their success is inevitable, and they will become the keys to the castle as the Cards close out this series with a win.
Final Cubs-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Cardinals: -1.5 (+108)
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