The Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday night in the second game of a doubleheader. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Diamondbacks-Dodgers prediction and pick.
These two teams have had vastly different seasons so far. The Diamondbacks have been better than expected, but they still haven't been particularly good. Arizona entered Tuesday's doubleheader at 18-18 on the year, earning a spot in fourth place in the NL West. The Dodgers, on the other hand, sit atop the division. Los Angeles entered play Tuesday at 22-12, a record that has them a half-game ahead of the San Diego Padres.
This division race should be close throughout the entire year, so every game carries meaning. The Dodgers won the first game of the series on Monday and, as of writing, hold a lead in the first game of the doubleheader.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Diamondbacks-Dodgers odds.
MLB odds: Diamondbacks-Dodgers Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-128)
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+106)
Over: 8 (-105)
Under: 8 (-115)
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Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
The Diamondbacks will deploy one of their better starters in this game. Merrill Kelly has not only been the best pitcher on Arizona, but one of the best pitchers in the entirety of MLB. He has earned a 1.71 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over his seven starts, two of the better numbers in the league. Kelly has only allowed eight earned runs over his seven starts, a stat that shows just how good he has been. The last time he faced the Dodgers, the righty managed to pitch six solid innings of work while only allowing three runs. There's good reason to believe that Kelly can put together another solid outing here to keep the Diamondbacks in range of a cover.
Luckily for Arizona, they aren't running into the best pitching Los Angeles has to offer. Tyler Anderson will make the start for the Dodgers, something that hasn't typically worked out for LA. Anderson's 4.40 ERA doesn't do anything to inspire confidence, and it doesn't help that several Diamondbacks hitters have a good track record against him. Four Arizona starters have a batting average of .267 or higher against Anderson, so it's possible that the D-Backs have a good offensive outing in this one.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover The Spread
While Kelly has had a fantastic year, the Dodgers do have a pretty good track record against him. Almost every single starter in the Dodgers has an elite career batting average against Kelly. Eight hitters have a batting average of .294 or higher against the Arizona starter. Los Angeles also hits right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching. They earn a better batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS.
Los Angeles should benefit from home-field advantage in this game. The Dodgers experience a big boost in batting statistics when they play in Dodger Stadium, and their bullpen has been better at home too. Los Angeles is 12-5 when playing at home, and there's a good chance to improve upon that record in this game.
Final Diamondbacks-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
This game should be much closer than most people expect. Kelly will pitch well enough to keep this game close, and that should be enough for the Diamondbacks to cover.
Final Diamondbacks-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-128)
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