The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks will wrap up their three-game series on Sunday afternoon. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Dodgers-Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
This is an absolutely crucial series for the Dodgers. Los Angeles just dropped a series to the division-leading San Francisco Giants, increasing the gap between them and the Giants in the NL West. The Dodgers are now three games out of first place, so every game counts. The Diamondbacks have been out of the playoff picture since April, but they would love to play spoiler against their division rival.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Sunday afternoon's game.
MLB Odds: Dodgers-Diamondbacks Odds
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Los Angeles Dodgers -1 1/2 (-150)
Arizona Diamondbacks +1 1/2 (+130)
Over 9 1/2 runs (-107)
Under 9 1/2 runs (-113)
Why The Dodgers Could Cover The Spread
The Dodgers have been hammered by injuries all across the roster, but they'll send out one of their few remaining healthy pitchers for this showdown. Julio Urias is slated to make the start against the Diamondbacks.
Urias has had a pretty solid year for Los Angeles, posting a 3.54 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Those numbers improve whenever Urias pitches on the road, as he sees his ERA fall all the way to 3.28 when he's anywhere but Dodger Stadium.
Urias also has an advantage when it comes to advanced stats. He only allows a 6.5% barrel percentage, an incredibly low number, The Diamondbacks don't have a single player with a high barrel percentage, so Urias shouldn't be allowing many hard-hit balls. Arizona already struggles to hit right-handed pitching, so it looks like Urias has the upper hand through and through in this matchup.
The Diamondbacks will entrust pitcher Caleb Smith with the start on Sunday. Smith has had a pretty rocky year, putting up a 4.61 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP on the season. Neither are good numbers, but Smith's advanced stats make things even worse for him. He has a walk rate of 11.4%, which is already pretty high. He has to face the Dodgers, one of the most patient lineups in baseball. Smith also allows a barrel percentage of 9.9% and he's facing a Los Angeles lineup that employs four hitters with extremely high barrel rates. The Dodgers have every advantage in this matchup.
Why Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
Arizona has been a terrible team for the entirety of the 2021 season, but there is some reason to believe they can cover in this one. The Diamondbacks are a much better team at home, especially offensively. Their batting average jumps from .216 on the road to .252 at Chase Field, and all of their other batting stats follow suit.
Caleb Smith may not be the most inspiring guy to have on the mound against the Dodgers, but he does have some factors going his way. He's also significantly better at home, with his ERA dropping from 5.80 on the road to 3.72 on his home field. The Dodgers struggle against left-handed pitching, seeing their team batting average drop from .250 all the way down to .230. Smith has a fighting chance to put together a decent outing.
Final Dodgers-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
It's hard to see the Diamondbacks covering the spread in this one. The Dodgers have every advantage, and Arizona has been so bad that it's difficult to envision them keeping this close. The Diamondbacks are tempting only because of the odds, but the Dodgers should cover easily.
FINAL PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers -1 1/2 (-150)
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